Sunday, September 14, 2008

What we learned by watching television...

Try predicting this game: One team is coming off of a 66-3 beat down of a conference rival and, before that, an impressive win over a Big Ten foe. The other team is coming off of a bad loss to Middle Tennessee and, before that, a near-miss against I-AA Delaware. Who wins a matchup of Teams A and B? The surprising answer is Team B. And convincingly, too.

I'm talking of Maryland upsetting No. 23 California, a game that helped set the tone for Saturday and raise many questions. I have a hypothesis, or at least dueling hypotheses. Either the Pac-10 is not as good as advertised or the time zone changes during away games really create a problem for the conference's mojo. Cal, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Washington and Washington State all lost to non-conference foes by at least a touchdown. Washington State lost by 28, Washington by 49 and UCLA by 59 --- the Bruins' worst lost since the Great Depression.

Meanwhile, Oregon, which racked up nearly 700 yards of offense the week before, struggled mightly to move the ball against an average Purdue team. Arizona State lost to UNLV, a team that had been beaten soundly by Utah the week before.

USC's demolition of Ohio State, of course, was a conference bright spot. Oregon State also won, crushing a piss-bad Hawaii team. But this week really makes me wonder about the strength of a conference that I thought was right there with the SEC. It also makes me wonder whether we have the Top 25 correct.

It looks like the Big 12, Mountain West and the rank-and-file teams in both the Big Ten and ACC are actually pretty good. It also turns out that USC's sacrificial lamb in Week One, Virginia, is much more pathetic than we initially thought. The UVA win catapulted USC to No. 1. But Virginia struggled with I-AA Richmond the very next week and on Saturday lost to the Connecticut Huskies by five touchdowns. Am I saying that UConn could get it on with USC? No. But the season has yet to reveal who the true diamonds are.

In Focus: USC-Ohio State

It's clear to me that the Buckeyes, my preseason No. 1, have absolutely no business being in the Top 10, or maybe even the Top 15. Last week, they struggled at home to beat a bad Ohio team (Ohio lost at home to Central Michigan this week). On Saturday against the Trojans, Ohio State was grossly overmatched.

USC coach Pete Carroll employed an NFL-like gameplan against Ohio State: Offensively, they established the run, applied burner RB Joe McKnight in Reggie Bush-like formations and then went for Ohio State's jugular with playaction. The defensive plan depended upon which Buckeye was calling the signals. Carroll blitzed Todd Boeckman relentlessly and employed extra linebackers against Terrelle Pryor. Without injured star RB Beanie Wells to keep the defense honest, the Buckeyes were vulnerable and it showed.

So, what happens from here? I think USC is still the team to beat, but I'm curious to see how they match up against the best of the SEC. Despite the loss, I think Ohio State will still flourish in the Big Ten. But they should clearly not be mentioned in the same sentence as the elite.

In Focus: Notre Dame

A few thoughts on Notre Dame. Yes, they beat Michigan convincingly (a result aided by six Michigan turnovers in rainy weather.) I also think ND coach Charlie Weis is building something in South Bend. But Notre Dame's future is hazy to me. As ESPN's Lee Corso pointed out on Saturday, the Irish have landed three straight Top 10 recruiting classes under Weis. But against San Diego State last week and Michigan, Notre Dame exuded a High School feel.

Weis is a good offensive coordinator. His schemes are complex, he takes risks and he adapts his offense to the circumstances of the game. But Weis is now in Year Four and his team still looks to be light years away from competing at an elite level. The talent, even the upperclassmen whom Weis recruited four years ago, compares to the Mountain West level, maybe a Utah, I'd say. That's fine, but not for a team that wishes to "stir up the echoes." If the defense can continue to force turnovers, I think the Irish will reach a bowl game this year. But I expect another embarrassing loss when the Irish travel to USC later this season.

Quick thoughts on other games...

I fear for the future of SMU football. Rebuilding or not, the team looked hideously overmatched against Texas Tech, especially on defense. Tech rolled up 33 first downs and nearly 700 yards. And, as far as I can tell, SMU Coach June Jones has never been known for building defenses. SMU Freshman QB Bo Levi Mitchell struggled in a way that was almost painful to watch. Five interceptions, including three in the first quarter. The experiment continues...

Speaking of the SMU-Tech game, I smell a rat. Vegas had Tech favored by 36.5 points. Tech led 43-0 late into the fourth quarter when SMU scored a TD. Final spread: 36.

Kansas was overrated, yes. But QB Todd Reesing has made a believer out of me. He's a fighter, has good instincts and he's accurate. Against South Florida on Friday, he withstood constant pressure and a hostile crowd to pass for nearly 400 yards and three scores.

The Mountain West Conference has a chip on its shoulder. This supposedly second-tier conference has a stable of legitimately good teams: BYU, Utah, TCU and Air Force. Even better, they all win in different ways. BYU with short passes, Utah with balance, TCU with a relentless rushing game and Air Force with a potent triple option attack.

The following surprise defenses are among the nation's best: Georgia Tech, Iowa, Fresno State, Tulane

Watch out for WR Brandon Tate of North Carolina. He's the ACC's version of Reggie Bush.

Overrated: Wisconsin, South Florida, Oregon, Illinois

Underrated: Florida State, Boise State, Iowa, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, Kentucky

Fine Nine: USC, Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Missouri, Penn State, Alabama

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