Pigskin Potpourri, Week 9

As it turns out, the most compelling game of this entire wacky college football season may hinge on one critical factor: Michael Crabtree's ankle.

Crabtree, a product of Dallas' Carter High, is an otherworldly beast. Take it from a former wideout who knows greatness when he sees it: Crabtree is a Top Three NFL receiver right now. He won the Biletnikoff Award last year. When he wins it again this year, they should rename it the Michael Crabtree Award. He's that good. He had nine catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns on Saturday. By Crabtree standards, that's an off-day.








I only saw about a quarter of Texas Tech's Jayhawk massacre on Saturday, but I continued listening to the game on Sirius while running a few errands. The Tech radio announcers -- perhaps the most obsequious pair of homers in the history of broadcasting -- kept fretting about Crabtree's ankle after every catch he made. "He got up kinda gingerly there, didn't he, Jimmy?" "He sure does seem to be favoring that ankle, Butch." That right there was enough to show me how nervous Red Raider Nation is about Crabtree's status against the Longhorns the day after Halloween.

In the Mack Brown and Mike Leach eras, UT-Tech showdowns in Lubbock always seem to be epic shootouts. So the Red Raiders urgently need a healthy, amped-up Crabtree to counter the potent attack of Colt McCoy, Chris Ogbonnaya and Jordan Shipley. For Crabtree, nine catches for 70 yards and two scores won't cut it in a game that will be a disappointment if both teams don't combine for at least 100 points.

On the tube: Oct. 25

This is turning out to be a pretty thrilling season, with more to come this week. A battle of the undefeateds (can Okie State finally get some respect?) and a fight for the Big 10.

Early Big 10 fix: The tale of two seasons, though playing two different games. Not on my tube will be Illinois at Wisconsin (11 a.m., ESPN2). The Badgers have been dreadful. They've taken over the bottom of the conference from their neighbors to the west, Minnesota, who will be visiting Purdue (11 a.m., ESPN Classic). Get this: The Gophers are not only bowl eligible, but have already won five more games than they did last year.

It's been a good run pass: Ted's right. Texas Tech has somehow made it this far without a loss, but I just think Kansas (11 a.m., ESPN) is too good and will exploit Tech's flaws in ways that Nebraska and A&M weren't able to.

Title watch: Every week, especially with the schedule ahead, the Longhorns are going to be under tremendous scrutiny, as well as on national TV. This week, it's undefeated (for now) Oklahoma State visiting Texas (2:30 p.m., ABC). Big game, but I'm just glad this isn't on prime time. About that respect thing, it's just too bad for OKState.

All ACC, all the time: Two huge games in Ted's conference. And he's right -- they've improved significantly (well, not Clemson) since the beginning of the season. Expect Virginia-Georgia Tech (2:30 p.m., ESPNU) to be a dogfight, while Virginia Tech-Florida State (2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2 -- 0r Gameplan) should be a low-scoring but hotly contested battle.

Please, oh please: Never will I have rooted for Penn State so hard as this weekend, as they visit Ohio State (7 p.m., ABC). The Buckeyes need a second loss. Please?

The rest:
Boston College-North Carolina (11 a.m., ESPN Gameplan): Huge for BC. Of course, every game is with a conference that tight.
Baylor-Nebraska (11:30 a.m., Versus): Actually not a bad game between two teams on the verge of a rise.
Oklahoma-Kansas State (11:30 a.m., FSN): I list this only because it's Oklahoma.
Georgia-LSU (2:30 p.m., CBS): Every day's a big day among SEC leaders. Looking for at least four "Oh, my!" outbursts.
Michigan State-Michigan (2:30 p.m., ESPN2): Rich Rod could win, considering it's Spartan Slump season.
Colorado-Missouri (5:30 p.m., FSN): This meant so much more three weeks ago.
Alabama-Tennessee (6:45 p.m., ESPN): Not a chance for the Vols.
Notre Dame-Washington (7 p.m., ESPN2): Yikes. Why is this prime time?
USC-Arizona (9:15 p.m., FSN): Upset opportunity.

And...your Sunday bonus: A C-USA showdown between two teams SMU almost beat as Central Florida visits Tulsa (7 p.m. Sunday, ESPN).

The Crystal Ball (Director's Cut)...

It's the last weekend in October, a time when the weather starts to get cold and the games start to get serious. Before we start, a few words about last week.

Some real good foretellings: TCU over Brigham Young (an upset foreseen by both Ian and myself); Virginia over North Carolina; Georgia Tech over Clemson; Georgia over Vanderbilt (with Bulldog RB Knowshon Moreno running wild.)

Now for the tough ones: As you may recall, I picked Michigan State over Ohio State and Ole Miss over Alabama. The Ole Miss pick was almost correct. They had a good chance of springing the upset if not for several costly turnovers (They lost 24-20).

The game between the Buckeyes and Spartans was a different story. Ohio State romped 45-7. But hear me out: I'm convinced this game would have been much closer if not for a key turnover early on. With the Bucks up 7-0, the Spartans were cutting through the OSU defense like butter when, lo! Buckeye fumble recovery. Ohio State quickly scores and Michigan State finds itself down and dispirited. The Spartans would eventually commit four more turnovers. In the end, sports is all about momentum. Ohio State captured and held it on Saturday.

Anyway, past is prologue. Time to summon the Crystal Ball...

Thursday quick hit:

Auburn at West Virginia. The Tigers are in disarray, having lost three of their last four. Though the Mountaineers also have struggled at times this season, their spread option offense seems to give speedy, overpursuing defenses fits (read: Georgia, Oklahoma, Auburn). Plus, the Mountaineers have had this nationally-televised game circled for some time and will be on a mission to prove that their struggles are but temporary. West Virginia wins.

Saturday foretellings:

Boston College at North Carolina. Here's a key ACC matchup that no television market will care to watch except for viewers in Boston and Raleigh-Durham and, ahem, at least one blogger in Dallas. North Carolina will attempt to run the ball, but they'll have a hard time doing so against B.C.'s stout front seven. If B.C. can avoid turnovers and blocked kicks (not a given), the Eagles will win. If not, it's the Tar Heels. No pick.

Illinois at Wisconsin. Boy, did this game look good on paper about two months and six losses ago... I foresee a big game for the Illini and QB Juice Williams that will push embattled Badgers coach Bret Bielema further onto the hot seat.

Baylor at Nebraska. I mention this game because, while I believe Nebraska will win, I think Baylor will keep it close into the second half. The Huskers have had problems containing running quarterbacks and the Bears just happen to have a good one in QB Robert Griffin.

BLOWOUT ALERT: Oklahoma at Kansas State. The real question here is not who will win but, rather, how big of a Sooners blowout will this be? Answer: Huge. When comparing teams, I often look at the resume of each. Oklahoma's worst game: a tough, 10-point loss to No. 1 Texas. K-State's worst game: a 30-point drubbing at home to Texas Tech. Or maybe it was the 11-point loss at Louisville. Or the 8-point scrap-and-claw victory against lowly Louisiana-Lafayette... You get the picture. Sooners win big.

Virginia at Georgia Tech. An interesting game for ACC aficionados. Both of these teams are on mini winning streaks. The thing to note here is that the Cavaliers are a vastly different team on the road (read: They stink). This game is in Atlanta. You do the math. Yellow Jackets win.

Big games:

Virginia Tech at Florida State. This is a matchup of the ACC's past (Florida State) and its present (Virginia Tech). The Seminoles are starting to put things together, while Tech's offense has struggled as of late. The X-factor, as is often the case in games against the Hokies, is turnovers and special teams play. Florida State's offense is talented, but also young and turnover-prone. I think Virginia Tech will make some plays on defense and maybe block a kick. Tech QB Tyrod Taylor, meanwhile, will do just enough to win. The Hokies win a tight one.

UPSET ALERT: USC at Arizona. There's no middle ground with this game. Either it's a Trojan blowout or Arizona springs the upset. I pick a Wildcats upset. Why? All the ingredients are there: Late night Fox Sports game. Rowdy U of A crowd. Electric desert atmosphere. And the Trojans are probably patting themselves on the back following their 69-0 pasting of Washington State. Moreover, I think Arizona Coach Mike Stoops will cook up some goodies in his game plan (perhaps some 'wham' blocks by the receivers ala Oregon State). In fact, if you look closely, the Wildcats have a cast of characters similar to Oregon State's: Small quick scat back (Nick Grigsby), mobile quarterback (Willie Tuitama) and a clutch senior wide receiver (Mike Thomas). USC might as well be an NFL team, we all know that. But Oregon State's win earlier this season showed that the Trojans are vulnerable. I think USC will show its soft underbelly again on Saturday.

UPSET ALERT: Texas Tech at Kansas. I am a believer in what Tech Coach Mike Leach has put together in Lubbock. But this season's magic carpet ride will end in Lawrence, where Kansas QB Todd Reesing and a hostile crowd awaits. This game will come down to Tech's inability to contain the big play and stop Kansas on third down. Despite Tech's best efforts, Kansas will pull the upset.

Georgia at LSU. Just as I liked how Georgia matched up with Vanderbilt last week, I like how LSU matches up with Georgia this week. I foresee LSU shutting down Bulldog RB Knowshon Moreno and blitzing QB Matthew Stafford to kingdom come. I also think that Georgia's defense, as fast as it is, has a tendency to overpursue and is vulnerable to gadget plays. It just so happens that gadget plays are Tigers Coach Les Miles's specialty. LSU wins a close one at home.

Biggest games:

Oklahoma State at Texas. Doesn't it seem like Texas plays a big game every week? Saturday is no different: Oklahoma State is the real deal. Most analysts are predicting a comfortable Texas win, but I don't buy it. After beating No. 1 Oklahoma and crushing an elite Missouri team, Texas is vulnerable to an emotional letdown. I think Oklahoma State will play Texas closer than anyone has so far. Still, that doesn't mean the Cowboys will win. Texas and QB Colt McCoy are just too good for that to happen. The Longhorns take a tough-fought one.

Penn State at Ohio State. At last, we get to the weekend's centerpiece. This is one of those classic "trench" games. Who will win the trench battle? Both defenses are stout, so it's a tough call.

I am a believer in Ohio State's defense. I'm especially a believer in the Bucks D when it is playing at home under the lights with the whole nation watching. Penn State's got a pretty darned good offense with QB Daryll Clark manning the controls. But remember: He's still young. And Ohio State's strength? Forcing turnovers.

I like Penn State's defense, too. But the Nittany Lions have yet to face a rushing attack quite as dynamic as Ohio State's. I'm pretty sure the Buckeyes will look to unleash RB Beanie Wells and wunderkind QB Terrelle Pryor on the ground. Penn State struggled at times to contain the option running of Illinois earlier this season. And that was at home. It'll be close, but I think Ohio State has the horses to pull off the upset and (ugh) jump back into the national title chase. Buckeyes win.

The Agony Meter... plus other thoughts

Here it is, a day late... A quick look at the tribulations of our alma maters.

Heaping dose of agony: Southern Methodist
The team put itself in a position to upset Houston, only to give away the game at the end on defense. It would have been the team's first conference win. Instead, the Mustangs drop to 1-7 and gnash their teeth once more. No one said rebuilding would be easy, but garn!

Some agony: Arizona State
A bye week takes some of the sting off of a disheartening four-game losing streak. But at 2-4, the Sun Devils will have to get moving if they want to give themselves any chance at a bowl game.

A dash of agony: Boston College
Yes, B.C. upset Virginia Tech on national television. It's hard to complain about that. But, boy, was it U-G-L-Y. The Eagles gave up five turnovers, including two pick-sixes. Yet they still won. Catholic fortune? Hokie bad luck? Or a sad commentary on both of these supposed ACC powers? We report. You decide.

If I were a Wall Street man, I'd short sell:

Phillies' closer Brad Lidge. He's solid, there's no question. But my Spidey Sense tells me he's due to get lit up and blow a game or two during this World Series.

Penn State. This team is very good and deserves its high ranking, but I'm done drinking the Kool Aid. After watching this team struggle against Purdue and Michigan, I can't see them making it to the Promised Land unscathed.

Oklahoma State. Good? Absolutely. Top Ten quality, even. But a national title contender? C'mon. Sell high now, before it's too late.

Your portfolio is trash if you haven't already sold:

Dallas Cowboys. What a disaster zone. If you recall, we put the Cowboys on our "short sell" list a few weeks ago. Look at how things have played out... Pacman. Romo. Jerry. St. Louis. Yada, yada, yada. The implosion would almost be sad if it weren't so twistedly amusing (said the diehard Patriots fan).

Overrated: Texas Tech, Tennessee Titans

Underrated: Ohio State, Tulsa, The Atlantic Coast Conference

Fine Nine: Texas, USC, Oklahoma, Penn State, Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Georgia

Nintendo Stat of the Week: 36 (First downs made by Tulsa in its 77-35 rout of UTEP on Saturday.)

One sick puppy...

Apologies are in order from this blogger, who has been both busy and feeling under the weather in recent days. Thanks for your patience. I'll pick it up again Thursday with the Crystal Ball.

Speaking of which, a quick World Series breakdown: The Phillies have the better lineup and closer, while the Rays have the better starting pitching staff. On balance, pitching wins championships. Rays win in a tight series.

On the tube: Weekday edition

A day early, but I'll be sitting in meetings for six hours tomorrow. Woohoo!

This week, we've got a couple games with BCS impact but little intrigue.

Skip it: ESPN2 needs to find something better to air than the 2-5 showdown of Ohio at Temple (7 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN2). Aren't there baseball reruns or preseason NBA or something?

Biggest game: I'm going out on a limb and saying Auburn-West Virginia (6:30 p.m. Thursday, ESPN) will be a sleeper. But Auburn needs at least a couple more wins to be bowl-eligible. West Virginia, amazingly, is unranked yet tied for the Big East lead. On the other hand, they're nearly through with the patsy part of its schedule. If the Mountaineers want to build up confidence for challenges against Pitt and South Florida, they'll need to snag a win this week.

Runner-up: Next in the series of Friday night WAC games is Boise State-San Jose State (8 p.m. Friday, ESPN2). Both are undefeated in conference play. Boise beat the bejesus out of Hawaii last week and is looking to run the table and get into a second BCS bowl in three years. The Spartans have been marvelously inconsistent this year -- scored just 13 in a win over UC Davis but beat Hawaii 20-17 on the road (even today a tough task) and is coming off blowouts over two WAC teams. No BCS for SJSU if they win, but they could certainly play spoiler. Which is always fun.

What's not on (yet) that should be: So I asked for a game last week that turned out to be a blowout. This week, I've got two Saturday games on my hot list (AKA, the ESPN360.com list), just for their postseason importance. First is NC State at Maryland (2:30 p.m.), wherein the Terps try to stay in the hunt for the ACC title game. Also up there is Rutgers at Pittsburgh (2:30 p.m.), wherein Pitt can maintain a conference lead or be forced into pinning hopes on South Florida and West Virginia losses.

As an aside...

Who's the doofus on the Harris Poll who, for the second week in a row, gave Utah a No. 1 vote? Really? One more of those (Utah has a bye week), and I'm going to hunt you down.

Scoping out the BCS

We've got our first glimpse at the BCS standings. No real surprises, except maybe Kansas being unranked in the computer average.

Here are the automatic bids...

Top 2: Texas, Alabama

Conference champs/leaders:
Big 12: [Texas]
Big 10: Penn State
SEC: [Alabama]
ACC: Georgia Tech
Big East: Pittsburgh
Pac 10: USC

Non-automatic conference in Top 12: Utah

No. 3, 4: Oklahoma

So we've got eight automatic bids, leaving two at-large picks. In the running are Georgia, Ohio State, Florida, Boise State, LSU and TCU. (Pity the lesser Big 12 teams -- Oklahoma State and Texas Tech can't get in. Conferences are limited to two BCS entries.) If it were up to me, I'd give the two slots to Georgia and Boise State. But they'll probably hand the slots to Ohio State and Florida.

If they were played today:
(Automatic placements are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Texas-Alabama. Same matchup two weeks in a row. This changes after Alabama drops one to LSU, Mississippi State or Auburn.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech-Pittsburgh (guess). Yet again, predicting a battle of the worst of the BCS automatic bids. Tough game to call, but I lean Georgia Tech in this scenario.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (guess)-Boise State (guess). Georgia racks up a second consecutive win against a WAC team.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (guess)-Utah (guess). Sooners will still have to watch out for another non-major surprise.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. Penn State is crazy good, but this is the Rose Bowl. They win, but it's close.

What we learned, express...

Like Jake, I had a busy weekend. Some expanded. thoughts are on the way. In the meantime, some one word thoughts to get started...

Red Sox... Sad.
Bottom of the Sox' lineup... Grrr.
Texas... Wow.
Missouri... Ouch.
Dallas Cowboys... Ugh.
Rays versus Phillies... Yawn.
Ted's fantasy football team this week... Blech.
Boston College... Hurray.
Virginia Tech... Evil.

More soon.

Pigskin Potpourri, Week 8

I'm swimming in a sea of midterms and didn't see much football this weekend, but thought I'd at least break the news for Three Fans that UT sits atop the first BCS standings. The Horns look like a strong bet to run the Big 12 gauntlet and punch their ticket to Miami.