Memo from a fan (a couple days late)

To: NCAA football rules committee
From: Ian
Re: Timing changes

It's taken me half of the season, but I finally understand this year's changes to the game and play clock. What I fail to grasp is what, exactly, you were smoking when you created the rule.

I support the play clock change. It keeps the game moving. Fantastic.

But the out-of-bounds change is simply bizarre. Call me crazy, call me traditional, but shouldn't out of bounds mean out of bounds and an actual stop of the clock? (In case you failed to read the rules before you approved them, the game clock restarts when the ball is set, making an out-of-bounds play equivalent to a first down clockwise. Except in the final two minutes of each half, when the clock restarts when the ball is snapped.)

Yes, you want to shorten games. I understand. But the way the clock runs just confuses people, including timekeepers. So change it.

On the tube: Oct. 11

Between the Red River Rivalry (still call it the Shootout) and the SEC smackdown, this'll be a damn good Saturday for sitting around with a beer or two.

Big 12 awesomeness: The Gameday guys have made a good call, and the great State Fair of Texas will provide a great backdrop for this year's Texas-OU game (11 a.m., ABC). Lots on the line here in a game that could very well determine the Big 12 South standings.

Get Juiced: Here's one that has big Big 10 consequences on the line. The Gophers are pretty lame, but the Illini are trying to get into the Rose Bowl. So watch Minnesota-Illinois (11 a.m., ESPN) during Texas-OU commercial breaks.

Future of the ACC?: Yet another mention for the Irish. But Notre Dame-North Carolina (2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN) will say a lot about how much progress, exactly, these two teams on the upswing have really made this season.

Weekly SEC mention: I'll be at a dinner tomorrow night, but I'll be pining to watch LSU-Florida (7 p.m., CBS). This has serious BCS implications. Watch.

Best of the rest:
Colorado-Kansas (11:30 a.m., ESPN2): Jayhawks could salvage a season with a strong showing.
Vanderbilt-Mississippi State (1:30 p.m., ESPN Gameplan): Vandy's going to drop one to a team it should beat. This could very well be it.
Nebraska-Texas Tech (2 p.m., FSN): Red Raiders continue their ridiculous offensive attack.
Arizona State-USC (2:30 p.m., ABC): Trojans have shown some weak spots. Sun Devils have shown more.
Purdue-Ohio State (2:30 p.m., ESPN/ABC): Crossing fingers for a Boilermaker upset.
Arkansas-Auburn (4 p.m., ESPN Gameplan): The Hogs are bad, but Auburn has flaws.
Oklahoma State-Missouri (7 p.m., ESPN2): A test for the Tiger defense. Cowboys could throw a monkey wrench into the Big 12 North.
Penn State-Wisconsin (7 p.m., ESPN): Yet another test for JoePa's Spread HD or whatever his scheme is called. Badgers have a shot.

The Crystal Ball thanks you, constant readers...

Before The Crystal Ball jumps into predictions for the week, here's a quick shout out to all the readers we've accumulated over the last three-plus months. This blog was started by three fans that had a jonesing to chat sports (and, mostly, college football). Along the way, though, we've carved out some good features. So kudos to the bloggers, and thanks for reading.

First off, some baseball predictions...

I like the Dodgers over the Phillies in the National League. L.A. is playing typical Joe-Torre playoff baseball: They harass the opponents' starting pitching early and then wreak havoc on the bullpen. The acquisition of Manny Ramirez also has given the Dodgers' lineup and fanbase a major jolt.

In the American League, I'll, of course, be rooting for the Red Sox. But my Spidey sense tells me the Rays are too hungry and talented to be denied. Tampa Bay did not back down at all in their trips to Boston this year. In fact, they seemed to relish the challenge of playing against the World Champion Sox in hostile Fenway Park.

Okay, now for the college gridiron...

Colorado at Kansas. On paper, these teams are evenly matched. But consider the fine print. Colorado has so far struggled on the road. And Jayhawk QB Todd Reesing, a junior, is seasoned enough to bring Kansas back should they fall behind early. Colorado does not have that luxury. Kansas wins by at least a touchdown.

South Carolina at Kentucky. There must be something in the water in The Palmetto State. South Carolina and Clemson are the most inconsistent teams in college football. Which South Carolina team will show up? The one that beat Ole Miss on the road last week? Or the team that struggled against Wofford? The Gamecocks have won three in a row, which makes me skittish about picking them to win a fourth. Moreover, Kentucky is a team brimming with confidence after its almost-upset against Alabama. Kentucky pulls out a low-scoring win.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State. Vandy's magic carpet ride continues for one more week, but it will be a hard-hitting affair against a solid Bulldog defense. The Commodores eke out a close one.

Nebraska at Texas Tech. The Huskers are reeling following a 52-17 annihilation at the hands of Missouri. The pain gets worse against Tech. In Lubbock, the Red Raiders win in one of those defense-free, 63-35-ish games.

Notre Dame at North Carolina. We'll find out which of these up-and-coming teams has progressed more. I think QB Jimmy Clausen is becoming a star, but I also think the UNC pass rush will get to him. What's more, Tar Heel WR Brandon Tate is too quick for the Irish defense. Notre Dame will play hard, but the eager Tar Heels want to make a statement. They will by beating the Irish.

Arizona State at USC. How does ASU pick up the pieces of an excruciatingly disappointing season? Beating USC would help, but it ain't going to happen. ASU's offense is struggling. And even if the Sun Devils catch the Trojans on an off day, USC has the talent to compensate. Trojans win big.

Big Game:

Oklahoma State at Missouri. Exactly how good are the 5-0 Cowboys? They've been dropping 50-spots on inferior competition at home. My feeling? You can't score if you don't have the ball. And, I can assure you, Missouri's offense will move the ball with buttery ease against Okie State's soft defense. The Cowboys might score a few touchdowns, but don't be surprised to see Missouri put up 50, maybe even 60, points this week in an ol' fashioned rout.

Bigger games:

Penn State at Wisconsin. We'll see how good the Nittany Lions' Spread HD offense really is against the Badgers' stout defense. Wisconsin will have the home crowd on its side, but I think the difference will be Penn State's defense, which will shut down the Badger O. Penn State wins a tough-fought affair.

LSU at Florida. The time has come for another UFC-like smackdown in the SEC. Both teams are loaded, of course, especially on defense. The key, I think, will be quarterback play. I remain unconvinced that Gator QB Tim Tebow can direct passing drives in the crunch. What makes him so dangerous is his ability to move the chains with his legs, particularly in short yardage situations. LSU has bigger QB problems of its own. Bolstered by the home crowd and Tebow's running prowess, Florida pulls out a close one.

Biggest game:

Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas). This is a fantastic matchup with all kinds of conference title and national championship ramifications. (And, just think, the game will be played just a few miles from my house...)

Showdowns like this are all about matchups. Both teams are stacked from head to toe. A closer look at the offenses, however, yield some important differences. Oklahoma has won with a balanced attack. Texas has won on the arm, and legs, of QB Colt McCoy. In fact, the boyish-faced McCoy is Texas's leading rusher with 317 yards.

The lack of a reliable running game will cause problems against a stout OU defense that will undoubtedly unleash blitz after blitz upon McCoy. Without a running game to fend off the dogs, I don't like Texas's chances. The Sooners will try to go for the jugular early with some deep passes. The Longhorns are far too talented to be daunted. Yet, in the end, I think Oklahoma's offensive balance will prove the difference. Sooners win.

Buy me, sell me... Agony meter...

For once, the stock market has been more volatile than sports. Still, there are surprises, especially in the pros: Chicago baseball is in the toilet. The Tampa Bay Rays, once baseball's worst team, is now arguably the best. In the NFL, New Eli looks like Old Peyton, while New Peyton looks like Old Eli. College football has seen ups and downs, as well. Here's what's likely to happen next:

Time to buy:

Tulsa. The 5-0 Golden Hurricane is dropping 50- and 60-spots on opposing teams with their spread offense. Facing a vanilla schedule ahead, look for them to run the table and become the unlikeliest team in the BCS conversation at season's end.

Illinois. If Penn State stumbles, the Illini could be looking at another Rose Bowl berth. Of course, they must first take care of business at Wisconsin and at home against Ohio State. But dynamic QB Juice Williams and Illinois have the talent and coaching to meet the challenge.

Florida State. Better beat them now. This team continues to get better and better, especially on offense. By no means are they there yet, but talent and promise abounds in Tallahassee.

Time to sell:

Vanderbilt. They've earned their Top 15 ranking and I'm rooting for them, the Cinderella that they are. But a difficult conference schedule looms, including games against Georgia and Florida. Here's hoping the magic dust doesn't wear off. I think it will soon.

Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 5-0 having fattened up on creampuff sandwiches like Troy and Missouri State. Now comes the broccoli of the schedule: at Missouri, at Texas, at Texas Tech and Oklahoma. I sense an onset of indigestion.

Red Sox. I'm as big a fan as any New Englander. But in their series with the Angels, the Sox showed cracks in the armor. Former ace Josh Beckett struggled with his fastball. If that continues, it would leave the Sox with just two solid starters: John Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Meanwhile, I thought the middle of the lineup often failed to get key hits without Manny Ramirez, now a Dodger. Those weaknesses, I think, will prove fatal against the Tampa Bay Rays, a team with solid hitting, pitching and fielding.

Finally, we turn to the tribulations of our alma maters in a weekly feature we call the Agony Meter.

Lots o' agony: Arizona State. The Sun Devils get off to a sour note in conference play with an ugly loss to rival California. Moreover, starting QB Rudy Carpenter is injured. The road doesn't get any easier this week with a trip to USC. A season that began with such promise is slipping away. Now that's agony.

Plenty o' agony: Southern Methodist. A 31-17 loss to Central Florida looks bad on paper because UCF was wiped out by lowly UTEP the week before. Things also are bound to get ugly this week when the Mustangs vie with high-powered Tulsa. But as we all know, tough losses are expected in coach June Jones' first year.

A dash o' agony: Boston College. The Eagles beat N.C. State 38-31, but the score should have been more of a rout. B.C. allowed a punt return for a touchdown, as well as two long touchdown passes. Moreover, three turnovers snuffed out promising B.C. drives. Those missed opportunities don't bode well for B.C. as the team heads into the heart of conference play.

On the tube: Weekday edition

For your midweek madness, here's what's on tap:

Troy at Florida Atlantic (7 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN2): It's Interactive Tuesday at ESPN! Cast your online votes ALL NIGHT LONG!!!

Clemson at Wake Forest (6:30 p.m. Thursday, ESPN): Get yer ACC fix early. This matchup takes top weekday honors.

Louisville at Memphis (7 p.m. Friday, ESPN): Watch it, but only if you're jonesing for pigskin. Honestly, I wouldn't even bother.

What's not on (yet) that should be:
I give you and the TV gods two options. There's Arizona at Stanford (4 p.m. Saturday) or Kansas State at Texas A&M (1 p.m. Saturday). Both games would offer up the opportunity for the home team to get demolished on national television. If the Army-A&M game can get on the tube, I don't see why an Aggie conference game isn't.

No more late nights this week...

Kudos to the Red Sox --- not only for advancing to the American League Championship Series, but for eschewing the need for Sox fans to stay up into the wee hours every single night. I'm sure some non-Sox fans are getting a little tired of the team's success. To that, I say this:

Scoping out the BCS

Two weeks till the first actual BCS rankings.

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 18 in all)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 19 twice, plus No. 20)
Big 10 -- Penn State (still No. 6 in all)
Big 12 -- Oklahoma (still No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 8 twice, plus No. 9)
SEC -- LSU (No. 2, 3 and 4)

As you can see, just one change with the conference leaders, LSU barely edging out Alabama. (The Tide is still ahead in the AP poll, coming in at No. 2. I give LSU the edge because they're ahead in both the USA Today and Harris polls.)

With Oklahoma and LSU in an if-it-were-today BCS championship, Mizzou and Alabama are almost certain to get in. (Weird provision here, but right now they're Nos. 3 and 4.)

Non-majors: The Mountain West's BYU continues to break the Top 12, taking another automatic bid. Boise State (WAC) is still potentially in the running, with two No. 15 and a No. 16 ranking.

Speaking of rank, you gotta love how the ACC and the Big East are stinking up the place. The Hokies and the Bulls could end up forcing this year's BCS selection team have to dig deep in the polls.

At-large: Texas, Texas Tech, Georgia, Ohio State and Florida are all still in the running. Much to change after this weekend's Red River matchup, the LSU-Florida game and Oklahoma State-Missouri.

Going over the selection rules again, I think I misread the at-large eligibility provisions last week. (This phrase escaped me: No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections). So I suppose that would allow Ohio State to get another BCS bid. Ugh.

One side note: I hereby promise to refrain from bashing Mizzou. The Tigers are pretty damn good. I reserve the right to resume knocking them if and when they begin to lose.

If they were played today:
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-LSU. Tough one to call, but I still give the Sooners an edge.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Worst of the BCS automatic bids. Hokies win.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (guess)-Alabama (guess). Yet again, Ohio State loses a BCS game.
Fiesta Bowl: Missouri (guess)-BYU (guess). Lots of points.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. Still not a chance for the Lions.

Pigskin Potpourri, Week 6

I wasn't able to watch much TV on Saturday, but I did manage to catch the first quarter of OU-Baylor. Lost in the shuffle of that massacre was a pretty solid game plan from Baylor: an Oregon State-esque mix of quick screens, quarterback draws and misdirection plays designed to turn Oklahoma's defensive speed against itself. Baylor's inferior players didn't execute the scheme very well, but UT's Colt McCoy, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley and company are more than up to the task if the Longhorns take a similar approach on Saturday at Fair Park. Mack Brown, you might want to pick the brain of your buddy Art Briles.

It's getting harder by the week for me to get excited about the Pac-10 as ASU's collapse intensifies and nobody in the rest of the Pac can seem to buy a non-conference win. (Stellar effort, there, Stanford and OSU.) To make matters worse, those dreaded Arizona Wildcats are starting to look halfway competent. This Sun Devil is already pining for basketball season to start.

What we learned on television

There's a lot on Ted Kim's agenda this weekend, so we'll make it an express edition.

Analysts will say all week that Vanderbilt is "the real deal" following their upset win of Auburn. No doubt the Commodores are a gritty, scrappy team with talent. But make no mistake: Auburn lost the game because of poor offensive playcalling. The Tigers ran wild in the first half behind bruising RB Ben Tate, rushing him 21 times. In the second half, Auburn called Tate's number just six times. Coach Tommy Tuberville said afterward that the team was in catchup mode and needed to pass. That's hogwash: Vanderbilt was up by one point. They won 14-13. Still, kudos to Vandy, which beat the Tigers for the first time since 1955.

Speaking of Vandy, the Commodores' upset was one of several games predicted to a tee by The Crystal Ball... (see: Ohio State over Wisconsin with QB Terrelle Pryor making the difference; and blowouts by Texas Tech, Texas, Missouri and USC.) There also was this Crystal Ball classic, which was pretty much as wrong as it gets:

"Florida State at Miami. The Seminole defense is an elite unit. So is Miami's. Which will give in first? Both offenses will struggle, but Miami will have a tad more success in moving the ball than Florida State. The Hurricanes win in a low-scoring affair." (The Seminoles won in a 41-39 shootout.)

Quick Notre Dame Note: It's clear that Notre Dame is getting better, but I'm still not convinced they can compete against the better teams. We'll find out how far the Irish come when they travel to Chapel Hill Saturday to play a vastly improved North Carolina team.

If I were a Wall Street man, I'd shortsell: Penn State. We all know they're solid, but all of this "national championship" talk makes me wary. Their Spread HD offense struggled mightily against Purdue (Purdue!). Moreover, the team is preparing to run the gauntlet by playing at Wisconsin, Michigan and at Ohio State.

Someone stop him from getting any better: N.C. State QB Russell Wilson. I foresee this young freshman becoming a Michael Vick-like unstoppable force one day. He was impressive Saturday against a stout B.C. defense, throwing for over 200 yards and a touchdown and scrambling repeatedly out of trouble.

Someone stop them from getting any worse: North Texas. Nothing quite epitomizes the word "suck" like being down to Florida International at halftime by four scores. North Texas lost 42-10.

Tears in Winter Award: Chicago Cubs fans. Ugh, what an utter flameout after so much promise this season. Final diagnosis: Good pitching, good hitting, poor defense. The D made all the difference. (See: How the Red Sox are winning.)

Overrated: Kansas, BYU, South Florida.

Underrated: Missouri offense (They are absolutely unstoppable. I saw it with my own eyes.)

Fine Nine: Oklahoma, USC, Alabama, Texas, LSU, Missouri, Florida, Georgia, Penn State.