Agony-Ball (Thanksgiving Edition)...

Hello, Constant Readers. We're back in the saddle today after much feasting and lazing. Here's a glance at the ups and downs of our alma maters, as well as a few (hopefully) spot-on predictions, in a special joint Thanksgiving Edition of The Agony Meter/Crystal Ball...

Choking on a bone: Southern Methodist
The 1-10 Mustangs have one more shot at a conference win: Saturday versus Southern Mississippi. But it's a tall order since the Golden Eagles are playing their best football of the season right now.

White meat or the beak: Arizona State
Can the 4-6 Sun Devils pull a disappointing season out of the fire and keep those bowl hopes alive with a win against UCLA? My gut says yes, but we'll find out Saturday.

About to pull on the wishbone: Boston College
A chance to play for the ACC title and a big-money bowl awaits, but BC must beat Maryland to get there. The Eagles' chances would be better if their starting quarterback, Chris Crane, hadn't broken his collarbone. Doh!

Now, for... The Crystal Ball (Quick Hits):

Friday games:

West Virginia at Pittsburgh. The Mountaineers squeak by and exact a measure of revenge. You may recall that Pitt upset West Virginia last year to knock the Mountaineers out of the national title game.

UCLA at Arizona State. The Sun Devils win a close one at home and train their sights on the, ahem, prestigious San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.

Fresno State at Boise State. Fresno State will hang tough, but the Broncos will prevail in one of those typical WAC, ESPN2 Friday-night, high-scoring, no defense, smurf turf showdowns.

Saturday games:

UPSET ALERT: Georgia Tech at Georgia. It looks like an uphill battle for Tech on paper. But I'm not so sure. The Jackets are motivated as they are looking to end a years-long losing streak against their in-state rivals. Tech's defensive front will give Georgia's young offensive line fits. The Yellow Jackets' option offense also has so far made mincemeat out of fast, overpursuing defenses (read: Georgia). It all points to a Jackets' upset.

South Carolina at Clemson. Remember our warnings in August about how overrated Clemson was? Yeah. South Carolina wins with defense.

Virginia at Virginia Tech. Virginia will keep things competitive, but the Hokies are too much to handle at raucous Lane Stadium.

Kansas vs. Missouri (Kansas City). Missouri wins a game that will feature more touchdowns than punts. Beware Oklahoma... The Tigers are still lurking.

Auburn at Alabama. This is Auburn's last shot at glory, while the Crimson Tide has national title aspirations. Auburn's defense will hang tough, but the Tigers just don't have the offensive horses to pull off the upset. 'Bama wins.

Maryland at Boston College. If BC can limit its turnovers, I like the Eagles to win on the shoulders of the defense. If not, the Terps will score the upset.

Big Games:

Oregon at Oregon State. The absence of Oregon State's freshman sensation RB Jacquizz Rodgers will hurt. Still, the Beavers will air it out with success to beat their rivals at home and clinch a Rose Bowl berth. Take that Trojans and your hot Song Girls and your probable at-large BCS bowl berth!

CHARLIE WEIS'S JOB ON THE LINE ALERT: Notre Dame at USC. This is a big game in the sense that much is at stake and there are many story lines. Storied rivalry. Irish coach Charlie Weis's job is on the line. And the Trojans are hoping to play themselves into the national title game. Like everone in the universe, I think the swoon of the Irish will continue in an embarrassing loss to USC that will have Notre Dame's haters hating with full throat.

Biggest Game:

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. All the ingredients exist for a possible Oklahoma State upset: Home crowd. Night game. National television audience. For those who think the Sooners will win in a rout, think again.

That said, the question is whether the Cowboys have the horsepower on both offense and defense to topple the white-hot Sooners. My answer is yes. Okie State's talent, of which they have lots, has shone at home this year. And given the rivalry and high stakes, I expect the Cowboys to be focused.

But all of that may not be enough. The Sooners play well on the road and have now reached a zone of focus that might give Tiger Woods pause. And no team, not even Texas, has so far neutralized Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, who slings the ball like a laser-guided bomb. Whether the Sooners will ultimately get to the national title game is unclear, but that is a discussion for another day. On this night, Oklahoma wins.

On the tube: Thanksgiving edition

Not much that isn't worth watching as we begin to wrap up the season. I'll be busily preparing an over-the-top extravagant feast for 24 on Saturday, so there'll be more listening than watching. Here's the deal this week:

Must watch:
Texas A&M at Texas (7 p.m. Thursday, ESPN): The Aggies always, no matter how awful they are, to have the Longhorns' number. Could make the Big 12 South less messy.
West Virginia at Pittsburgh (11 a.m. Friday, ABC): Mountaineers need to win.
Fresno State at Boise State (5 p.m. Friday, ESPN2): Bulldogs are as blue collar as their coach's facial hair. They've got a sliver of a chance to win in Boise.
Auburn at Alabama (2:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS): Bama should win, but there's also that chance to screw with the BCS.
Baylor at Texas Tech (2:30 p.m. Saturday, Versus): Not much of a chance for Baylor in Lubbock, but the Bears could play spoiler.
Oregon at Oregon State (6 p.m., Versus): Win for OSU means roses; loss means they depend on the Trojans to throw one away.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (7 p.m. Saturday, ABC): The biggest game in college football. My prediction? Oklahoma State has its moments, but the Sooners are simply too much.

Must watch if you care about the ACC:
Most everybody who wins has a chance to go to the title game.
Georgia Tech at Georgia (11 a.m. Saturday, CBS): Very tough game for Paul Johnson and crew.
Miami at NC State (11 a.m. Saturday, ESPN Gameplan): NC State has picked up some surprising wins lately.
South Carolina at Clemson (11 a.m., ESPN2): In August, this game would have been huge.
Virginia at Virginia Tech (11 a.m., ESPN): Hokies most likely to win the Coastal Division.
Florida at Florida State (2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2): Gators look unstoppable.
Maryland at Boston College (2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2): Terps are the least consistent team in the conference. BC needs to cross fingers, put together a scoring drive or two.

BCS outlook: The skies clear

A mix of forecast and "If it were played today" below, but first the conference-by-conference look...

The ACC: Florida State and Georgia Tech are done with the conference schedule, with their in-state SEC rivalry games up this week. That still leaves tiebreaker possibilities out there for conference title game, and Boston College has a good chance to make it.

The Big East: Cincinnati broke Pittsburgh's back Saturday night and faces the Irish-beating Syracuse Orange this weekend. Only a Bearcat loss (and two wins by West Virginia) can keep them out of the BCS.

The Big 12: Possible monkey wrench for Oklahoma? The Bedlam Bowl this weekend.

Everything looks roses for Oregon State, unless they get surprised at the Civil War.

Utah pounded BYU, pretty much sealing a BCS berth.

The matchups today:
BCS Championship: Alabama-Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma-USC
Sugar Bowl: Florida-Utah
Orange Bowl: Florida State-Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Oregon State-Penn State

My actual prediction:
BCS Championship: Florida-Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Texas-USC
Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-Utah
Rose Bowl: Oregon State-Penn State

Weekend thoughts...

NORMAN, Okla. --- I spent part of Saturday at this educational outpost on the open plains. Amy and I, on our way back from a weekend in Oklahoma City, took a spin around campus about two hours before kickoff of Oklahoma-Texas Tech.

To say that Oklahoma's Owen Memorial Stadium is intimidating in person is like saying Mount Everest is a wee-tough climb. Undefeated Tech found out the hard way, getting blown to smithereens. Having now been to Norman and seen the unbridled passion, the middle-of-nowhere canyon-like stadium, the series of national championships painted on the scoreboard, all of first hand, I do not believe the Sooners can be beat there.

Jake foreshadowed Oklahoma's win last week. The Crystal Ball took it a step further. Here is the prediction word for word... We don't call it the Crystal Ball for nothing:

"The Red Raiders have cheated death in 10 straight games, but payment has come at last.

I believe in Tech and all they've accomplished. QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree are studs and the team's No. 2 ranking is well deserved. But on the road against Oklahoma, watch for Tech's secrets to be laid bare.

The Sooners always show up in force for these conference showdown-type games and, now, they have had two weeks to prepare. I've picked against Tech the last few weeks, but my Spidey Sense tells me the team's karma is about to change. Football giveth and football taketh away. You read it here first: Oklahoma wins in a blowout."

ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit mentioned during the game that he didn't think anyone could have predicted such a lopsided outcome. Well, he didn't read 3Fans.

Now, for some quick hits:

Ambush in waiting: Missouri. Twice beaten by Oklahoma last year, the Tigers have quietly waited in the weeds for their chance at revenge and to show the nation that they are, indeed, an elite team. I foresee a pumped up and focused Mizzou against whoever wins the Big 12 South: Watch out Texoma Tech.

Big Bowl matchups I'd love to see: USC versus Florida, Oklahoma-Texas versus Florida, Texas Tech versus Utah.

Big Bowl matchups I'd hate to see: Cincinnati versus Georgia Tech, Cincinnati versus Utah. In fact, any game involving the (yawn) Bearcats.

Most inconsistent team of the century: Maryland. Loses to Middle Tennessee State by 10. Beats California by 8. Loses to Virginia by 31. Beats Wake Forest by 26. Loses to Virginia Tech by 10. Beats North Carolina by 2. Loses to Florida State by 34. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

If I were a Wall Street Man, I'd short sell: Alabama. They're good, but they're not national championship good. Watch for them to get exposed Texas Tech-style against Florida in the SEC title game.

Overrated: Utah, Boise State

Underrated: Georgia Tech, Cincinnati

Fine Nine: Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, USC, Penn State, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Oklahoma State