Monday, September 15, 2008

Rankings Review, Sept. 15 / Crystal Ball, in retrospect...

Ohio State plummets and USC consolidates first-place votes in the new polls. I'm surprised at how impressive voters thought South Florida's win over Kansas was. The Bulls are now at No. 12 (and clearly overrated). Good news? Kansas is roughly where it should be: No. 19ish.

Most overrated in the polls: Missouri at No. 6. The offense is potent, yes. But who have they played? This is a team that gave up six touchdowns to Illinois. On Saturday, Louisiana-Lafayette held Illinois to 20 points and almost pitched the upset.

Most underrated in the polls: Vanderbilt at unranked (They've only beaten three solid teams: Miami (Oh), South Carolina and Rice.)

Why are these teams getting votes? Ball State, Northwestern.

A review of how The Crystal Ball did:

The Crystal Ball has a sixth sense:

"Tulane is better than people think. They held Alabama to 20 points last week --- something the vaunted Clemson Tigers could not do. I still think East Carolina wins this game because they have the better offense, but it's a close one."

"The pro-Huskie crowd will scream its lungs out, but to no avail. Oklahoma does a woodshed job on Washington. I predict an ugly score, and even uglier sports columns calling for Ty Will's firing on Sunday."

"Fresno State has been pointing to this home game with Wisconsin for some time, but Wisconsin has heart and is well conditioned. My prediction: The game goes into the 4th quarter close. Ultimately, I think Wisconsin pulls it out because they have a slightly better offense. But I would not be surprised to see the Bulldogs snatch one here."

"Ohio State at USC...I think the Ohio State defense keeps it close early on. I also think coach Jim Tressel will have some tricks up his sleeve involving freshman sensation QB Terelle Pryor. But USC is just too talented to be stopped. The Trojans win comfortably."

The Crystal Ball was kind of right:

"Vandy jumps out early on Rice and withstands a furious late rally from the Owls, who are well conditioned and tend to play their best football in the 4th quarter."

"Texas Tech puts up a big number on SMU in Lubbock. The spread is 36.5, but given how poor SMU's defense is, I think Tech will cover."

"Missouri beats Nevada in Columbia. It's close in the first half, but Mizzou turns it on in the second half and adds a couple of TDs late to make the final score pretty for the newspapers."

The Crystal Ball was sniffing glue:

"Cal at Maryland... This one is not even close. Cal unleashes an offensive storm on the Terps and puts up a big, big number."

NFL Quick Notes: The Cleveland Browns are a mess. Unless they get it together in a hurry, I predict an ugly season this year.... I think RB LaDanian Tomlinson of San Diego is running out of gas. His body has taken such punishment over the years and it's starting to show.... Minnesota's stellar young RB Adrian Peterson is going to get hurt this year. He runs with abandon. But his greatest strength also could be his undoing.... Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind. The Green Bay QB is accurate and making all the right decisions. But will it last? .... Patriot QB Matt Cassel is no substitute for His Holiness, Tom Brady. The Pats will win some games this year because of defense and sheer will. But they are kidding themselves if they can compete with the elite with Cassel calling the signals.

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