Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Shameless plug

Two reasons you haven't been hearing much from this college football nut lately:

1) I am in a unique state of psychosis/denial after ASU's colossal collapse torpedoed all buzz and hype related to the Georgia game. At this point, ASU could win by 50 points and I wouldn't care.

2) I have been immersed in the launch of SMU's latest student news site: The Daily Mustang. Bookmark it and visit often. And check back a little later this week for a video preview of this weekend's Iron Skillet matchup between SMU and TCU. Find out how a Horned Frog's ability to spew blood from its eyes factors into the rivalry.

You didn't ask me, but...

...Here are a few thoughts on Monday night's fantastic Eagles-Cowboys game:

I can't quite figure out whether Tony Romo's calm demeanor in the pocket and post-game interviews is for real or all schtick to mask some kind of crazy Tiger Woods-esque competitive intensity. This guy is incredible. One minute the Cowboys' QB's hands are made of margarine. The next minute he's Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Clint Eastwood all put together. ... You've got to love Donovan McNabb. He's the consummate professional. You get the sense that he plays football like he's punching his timecard at the local widget factory. He's all business and no smiles. We're manufacturing touchdowns today? Got it. ... I don't think I heard Flozell Adams get flagged for his usual false start penalty, but maybe I missed it. ... Did you happen to notice the choking traffic that surrounded Texas Stadium well into the second quarter? It was apparent on television.

Monday, September 15, 2008

The Agony Meter...

Here's a new feature that we will break out every Monday to gauge the various successes and failures of our alma maters.

Total agony: Arizona State
Undefeated matchup with Georgia. Outside chance at a national championship bid and a Heisman for QB Rudy Carpenter. Shot at a Pac-10 championship and a Top 10 ranking. All of it goes poof with a loss to UNLV when the Rebels block an overtime field goal launched from the foot of Arizona State's Groza Award-winning kicker. For Sun Devil fans, I'd call that total agony.

Some agony: Southern Methodist
The Mustangs are crushed on national television by Texas Tech. QB Bo Levi Mitchell looks like he's never read a defense before. Yet with Tech strong this year and SMU clearly in rebuilding mode, the results were not all that unexpected.

A dash of agony: Boston College
The Eagles' loss to Georgia Tech earlier this month looks all the more bush league as the Yellow Jackets lose to Virginia Tech. Moreover, B.C.'s game Saturday with Central Florida is moved to television outpost ESPNU. But at least B.C., which had a bye week on Saturday, didn't lose to anyone.

God must be a...: Trojan, Bulldog, Bronco or Merrill employee
USC destroys Ohio State. And the Trojan talent only gets deeper next year. The Georgia Bulldogs pull out out against South Carolina, which fumbles on the goal line to snuff out a late comeback. On the pro side, the Broncos steal one against the Chargers when ref Ed Hochuli blows a call and gives Denver a chance to score. Wall Street brokerage Merrill Lynch engineers an eleventh-hour deal with Bank of America even as its competitors crumble.

On the tube: Early Week 4 edition

Gonna be a bit of a busy week ahead, so here's a preview a couple days early. If you have weekend plans, fear not: There's not much worth watching on.

Best warmup: Catch a couple of former one-hit wonders as Kansas State visits Louisville (7 p.m. Wednesday, ESPN2). A close second is West Virginia at Colorado (7:30 p.m. Thursday, ESPN). The only reason I don't list that one as the mid-week game to watch is that it's going to be ugly yet again for the Big East.

How many times can I write Carolina in one paragraph?: The only team with "Carolina" in its name that NC State doesn't face this year is Western Carolina University. They've already been shut out and blown out by South Carolina, and the Wolfpack visits North Carolina on Nov. 22. This week? An 11 a.m. game hosting East Carolina (ESPN). Can the C-USA powerhouse pull out another win? To steal a little Crystal Ball thunder, I'm guessing this one goes to NC State...East Carolina drops in the polls but barely remains in the Top 25.

Get your West Coast fix: Apparently the Pac 10 is taking the week off, because Arizona at UCLA (2 p.m., FSN) is the only nationally televised game (add: during the day) out of the conference. How many bye weeks, exactly, does USC have? (Um. Duh. See below for the other one. But we should be getting more out of this conference, no?)

Yet another beating: For some reason, it doesn't get old watching BYU tear up the field. This week's victim is a visiting Wyoming (2 p.m., The Mountain).

Top game of the week: I know, I know -- I have an unhealthy obsession with the SEC. But LSU at Auburn (6:45 p.m., ESPN) is really truly going to be the most entertaining game all week long. And because I always love an underdog, War Eagle!

The rest:
Baylor at UConn (7 p.m. Friday, ESPN2): Sorry, Bears, not a chance.
Iowa at Pitt (11 a.m., ESPN2): Just filling airtime.
Alabama at Arkansas (11:30 a.m., ESPN Gameplan): Get your morning bacon.
Central Florida at BC (noon, ESPNU): C-USA takes this one over the hopeless ACC.
Florida at Tennessee (2:30 p.m., CBS): Tim Tebow singlehandedly destroys the Vols.
Notre Dame at Michigan State (2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN): Charlie Weis' ligaments are the biggest story here
VaTech at North Carolina (2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN): A win for the ACC!
Rice at Texas (6 p.m., FSN): I feel sorry for the Owls.
Georgia at Arizona State (7 p.m., ABC): Jake gets to watch his team play. Sorry, man.

What's not on that should be:
Last week was the C-USA bias, and this week my SEC leanings come out. I know that Florida's a big draw, but if I were CBS, I'd be begging the conference to move Vanderbilt-Ole Miss game (6 p.m.) to the 2:30 slot and show this one instead. It's been a long, long time since Vandy played decent football, and I'd much rather watch two middle-ground teams face off than see a Gator blowout. But what do I know?

Rankings Review, Sept. 15 / Crystal Ball, in retrospect...

Ohio State plummets and USC consolidates first-place votes in the new polls. I'm surprised at how impressive voters thought South Florida's win over Kansas was. The Bulls are now at No. 12 (and clearly overrated). Good news? Kansas is roughly where it should be: No. 19ish.

Most overrated in the polls: Missouri at No. 6. The offense is potent, yes. But who have they played? This is a team that gave up six touchdowns to Illinois. On Saturday, Louisiana-Lafayette held Illinois to 20 points and almost pitched the upset.

Most underrated in the polls: Vanderbilt at unranked (They've only beaten three solid teams: Miami (Oh), South Carolina and Rice.)

Why are these teams getting votes? Ball State, Northwestern.

A review of how The Crystal Ball did:

The Crystal Ball has a sixth sense:

"Tulane is better than people think. They held Alabama to 20 points last week --- something the vaunted Clemson Tigers could not do. I still think East Carolina wins this game because they have the better offense, but it's a close one."

"The pro-Huskie crowd will scream its lungs out, but to no avail. Oklahoma does a woodshed job on Washington. I predict an ugly score, and even uglier sports columns calling for Ty Will's firing on Sunday."

"Fresno State has been pointing to this home game with Wisconsin for some time, but Wisconsin has heart and is well conditioned. My prediction: The game goes into the 4th quarter close. Ultimately, I think Wisconsin pulls it out because they have a slightly better offense. But I would not be surprised to see the Bulldogs snatch one here."

"Ohio State at USC...I think the Ohio State defense keeps it close early on. I also think coach Jim Tressel will have some tricks up his sleeve involving freshman sensation QB Terelle Pryor. But USC is just too talented to be stopped. The Trojans win comfortably."

The Crystal Ball was kind of right:

"Vandy jumps out early on Rice and withstands a furious late rally from the Owls, who are well conditioned and tend to play their best football in the 4th quarter."

"Texas Tech puts up a big number on SMU in Lubbock. The spread is 36.5, but given how poor SMU's defense is, I think Tech will cover."

"Missouri beats Nevada in Columbia. It's close in the first half, but Mizzou turns it on in the second half and adds a couple of TDs late to make the final score pretty for the newspapers."

The Crystal Ball was sniffing glue:

"Cal at Maryland... This one is not even close. Cal unleashes an offensive storm on the Terps and puts up a big, big number."

NFL Quick Notes: The Cleveland Browns are a mess. Unless they get it together in a hurry, I predict an ugly season this year.... I think RB LaDanian Tomlinson of San Diego is running out of gas. His body has taken such punishment over the years and it's starting to show.... Minnesota's stellar young RB Adrian Peterson is going to get hurt this year. He runs with abandon. But his greatest strength also could be his undoing.... Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind. The Green Bay QB is accurate and making all the right decisions. But will it last? .... Patriot QB Matt Cassel is no substitute for His Holiness, Tom Brady. The Pats will win some games this year because of defense and sheer will. But they are kidding themselves if they can compete with the elite with Cassel calling the signals.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

What we learned by watching television...

Try predicting this game: One team is coming off of a 66-3 beat down of a conference rival and, before that, an impressive win over a Big Ten foe. The other team is coming off of a bad loss to Middle Tennessee and, before that, a near-miss against I-AA Delaware. Who wins a matchup of Teams A and B? The surprising answer is Team B. And convincingly, too.

I'm talking of Maryland upsetting No. 23 California, a game that helped set the tone for Saturday and raise many questions. I have a hypothesis, or at least dueling hypotheses. Either the Pac-10 is not as good as advertised or the time zone changes during away games really create a problem for the conference's mojo. Cal, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Washington and Washington State all lost to non-conference foes by at least a touchdown. Washington State lost by 28, Washington by 49 and UCLA by 59 --- the Bruins' worst lost since the Great Depression.

Meanwhile, Oregon, which racked up nearly 700 yards of offense the week before, struggled mightly to move the ball against an average Purdue team. Arizona State lost to UNLV, a team that had been beaten soundly by Utah the week before.

USC's demolition of Ohio State, of course, was a conference bright spot. Oregon State also won, crushing a piss-bad Hawaii team. But this week really makes me wonder about the strength of a conference that I thought was right there with the SEC. It also makes me wonder whether we have the Top 25 correct.

It looks like the Big 12, Mountain West and the rank-and-file teams in both the Big Ten and ACC are actually pretty good. It also turns out that USC's sacrificial lamb in Week One, Virginia, is much more pathetic than we initially thought. The UVA win catapulted USC to No. 1. But Virginia struggled with I-AA Richmond the very next week and on Saturday lost to the Connecticut Huskies by five touchdowns. Am I saying that UConn could get it on with USC? No. But the season has yet to reveal who the true diamonds are.

In Focus: USC-Ohio State

It's clear to me that the Buckeyes, my preseason No. 1, have absolutely no business being in the Top 10, or maybe even the Top 15. Last week, they struggled at home to beat a bad Ohio team (Ohio lost at home to Central Michigan this week). On Saturday against the Trojans, Ohio State was grossly overmatched.

USC coach Pete Carroll employed an NFL-like gameplan against Ohio State: Offensively, they established the run, applied burner RB Joe McKnight in Reggie Bush-like formations and then went for Ohio State's jugular with playaction. The defensive plan depended upon which Buckeye was calling the signals. Carroll blitzed Todd Boeckman relentlessly and employed extra linebackers against Terrelle Pryor. Without injured star RB Beanie Wells to keep the defense honest, the Buckeyes were vulnerable and it showed.

So, what happens from here? I think USC is still the team to beat, but I'm curious to see how they match up against the best of the SEC. Despite the loss, I think Ohio State will still flourish in the Big Ten. But they should clearly not be mentioned in the same sentence as the elite.

In Focus: Notre Dame

A few thoughts on Notre Dame. Yes, they beat Michigan convincingly (a result aided by six Michigan turnovers in rainy weather.) I also think ND coach Charlie Weis is building something in South Bend. But Notre Dame's future is hazy to me. As ESPN's Lee Corso pointed out on Saturday, the Irish have landed three straight Top 10 recruiting classes under Weis. But against San Diego State last week and Michigan, Notre Dame exuded a High School feel.

Weis is a good offensive coordinator. His schemes are complex, he takes risks and he adapts his offense to the circumstances of the game. But Weis is now in Year Four and his team still looks to be light years away from competing at an elite level. The talent, even the upperclassmen whom Weis recruited four years ago, compares to the Mountain West level, maybe a Utah, I'd say. That's fine, but not for a team that wishes to "stir up the echoes." If the defense can continue to force turnovers, I think the Irish will reach a bowl game this year. But I expect another embarrassing loss when the Irish travel to USC later this season.

Quick thoughts on other games...

I fear for the future of SMU football. Rebuilding or not, the team looked hideously overmatched against Texas Tech, especially on defense. Tech rolled up 33 first downs and nearly 700 yards. And, as far as I can tell, SMU Coach June Jones has never been known for building defenses. SMU Freshman QB Bo Levi Mitchell struggled in a way that was almost painful to watch. Five interceptions, including three in the first quarter. The experiment continues...

Speaking of the SMU-Tech game, I smell a rat. Vegas had Tech favored by 36.5 points. Tech led 43-0 late into the fourth quarter when SMU scored a TD. Final spread: 36.

Kansas was overrated, yes. But QB Todd Reesing has made a believer out of me. He's a fighter, has good instincts and he's accurate. Against South Florida on Friday, he withstood constant pressure and a hostile crowd to pass for nearly 400 yards and three scores.

The Mountain West Conference has a chip on its shoulder. This supposedly second-tier conference has a stable of legitimately good teams: BYU, Utah, TCU and Air Force. Even better, they all win in different ways. BYU with short passes, Utah with balance, TCU with a relentless rushing game and Air Force with a potent triple option attack.

The following surprise defenses are among the nation's best: Georgia Tech, Iowa, Fresno State, Tulane

Watch out for WR Brandon Tate of North Carolina. He's the ACC's version of Reggie Bush.

Overrated: Wisconsin, South Florida, Oregon, Illinois

Underrated: Florida State, Boise State, Iowa, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, Kentucky

Fine Nine: USC, Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Missouri, Penn State, Alabama

Pac-10 potpourri, Week 3

Man. What a crushing week for the Pac. USC predictably butchered the Beanie-less Buckeyes. The Trojans are simply in their own league. Meanwhile, in the Marta/Buckle bowl, the overrated Ducks barely squeaked by the wussy Boilermakers in front of a labotomized Purdue crowd. (I've heard more excitement at JV volleyball games.) Washington and UCLA were manhandled by OU and BYU. Cal, Stanford and Wazzu all got spanked on the road by teams that any Pac-10 squad should be able to beat.

Then came the shocker, which I've been monitoring tonight via the Web and text alerts. I'm glad I didn't spring for the Fox Sports West Coast channel, because witnessing this travesty would have been too much for this Sun Devil to bear. ASU, possibly energized by Georgia's half-assed effort against South Carolina earlier in the day, overlooked UNLV and lost in overtime to the Runnin' Rebels. Not having witnessed the game, I can't say exactly what went wrong, although Keegan Herring's absence surely played a huge role by taking the lightning away from ASU's two-pronged rushing attack. Wait a sec -- just saw some higlights on ESPN. UNLV quarterback Omar Clayton channeled fellow Rebel Randall Cunningham by scrambling to avoid a sack with less than 30 seconds left, then flinging a touchdown pass to some wideout who made a ridiculous one-handed grab that sent the game into overtime. ASU's attempt to tie the game in OT with a field goal was blocked, and that was that.

Of course, this inexcusable loss ruins any BCS hopes that ASU might have had. The Devils don't stand a chance against USC in LA, although they may fare better than the Buckeyes did today. I still think ASU might beat Georgia at home, though. The Bulldogs' 3-man defensive line looked absolutely gassed against the Gamecocks in the fourth quarter, and Georgia was saved by a couple of gimme turnovers. Meanwhile, Matt Stafford and the Bulldog offense looked downright feeble against the defense of an unranked South Carolina team. Still, even if ASU does pull an upset against an SEC opponent at home, it's just a nice resume-builder for a possible shot at another Holiday Bowl. Whoopedy friggin' doo.