Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Buy me, sell me... Agony meter...

For once, the stock market has been more volatile than sports. Still, there are surprises, especially in the pros: Chicago baseball is in the toilet. The Tampa Bay Rays, once baseball's worst team, is now arguably the best. In the NFL, New Eli looks like Old Peyton, while New Peyton looks like Old Eli. College football has seen ups and downs, as well. Here's what's likely to happen next:

Time to buy:

Tulsa. The 5-0 Golden Hurricane is dropping 50- and 60-spots on opposing teams with their spread offense. Facing a vanilla schedule ahead, look for them to run the table and become the unlikeliest team in the BCS conversation at season's end.

Illinois. If Penn State stumbles, the Illini could be looking at another Rose Bowl berth. Of course, they must first take care of business at Wisconsin and at home against Ohio State. But dynamic QB Juice Williams and Illinois have the talent and coaching to meet the challenge.
Florida State. Better beat them now. This team continues to get better and better, especially on offense. By no means are they there yet, but talent and promise abounds in Tallahassee.

Time to sell:

Vanderbilt. They've earned their Top 15 ranking and I'm rooting for them, the Cinderella that they are. But a difficult conference schedule looms, including games against Georgia and Florida. Here's hoping the magic dust doesn't wear off. I think it will soon.

Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 5-0 having fattened up on creampuff sandwiches like Troy and Missouri State. Now comes the broccoli of the schedule: at Missouri, at Texas, at Texas Tech and Oklahoma. I sense an onset of indigestion.

Red Sox. I'm as big a fan as any New Englander. But in their series with the Angels, the Sox showed cracks in the armor. Former ace Josh Beckett struggled with his fastball. If that continues, it would leave the Sox with just two solid starters: John Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Meanwhile, I thought the middle of the lineup often failed to get key hits without Manny Ramirez, now a Dodger. Those weaknesses, I think, will prove fatal against the Tampa Bay Rays, a team with solid hitting, pitching and fielding.

Finally, we turn to the tribulations of our alma maters in a weekly feature we call the Agony Meter.

Lots o' agony: Arizona State. The Sun Devils get off to a sour note in conference play with an ugly loss to rival California. Moreover, starting QB Rudy Carpenter is injured. The road doesn't get any easier this week with a trip to USC. A season that began with such promise is slipping away. Now that's agony.

Plenty o' agony: Southern Methodist. A 31-17 loss to Central Florida looks bad on paper because UCF was wiped out by lowly UTEP the week before. Things also are bound to get ugly this week when the Mustangs vie with high-powered Tulsa. But as we all know, tough losses are expected in coach June Jones' first year.

A dash o' agony: Boston College. The Eagles beat N.C. State 38-31, but the score should have been more of a rout. B.C. allowed a punt return for a touchdown, as well as two long touchdown passes. Moreover, three turnovers snuffed out promising B.C. drives. Those missed opportunities don't bode well for B.C. as the team heads into the heart of conference play.

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