Scoping out the BCS

Two weeks till the first actual BCS rankings.

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 18 in all)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 19 twice, plus No. 20)
Big 10 -- Penn State (still No. 6 in all)
Big 12 -- Oklahoma (still No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 8 twice, plus No. 9)
SEC -- LSU (No. 2, 3 and 4)

As you can see, just one change with the conference leaders, LSU barely edging out Alabama. (The Tide is still ahead in the AP poll, coming in at No. 2. I give LSU the edge because they're ahead in both the USA Today and Harris polls.)

With Oklahoma and LSU in an if-it-were-today BCS championship, Mizzou and Alabama are almost certain to get in. (Weird provision here, but right now they're Nos. 3 and 4.)

Non-majors: The Mountain West's BYU continues to break the Top 12, taking another automatic bid. Boise State (WAC) is still potentially in the running, with two No. 15 and a No. 16 ranking.

Speaking of rank, you gotta love how the ACC and the Big East are stinking up the place. The Hokies and the Bulls could end up forcing this year's BCS selection team have to dig deep in the polls.

At-large: Texas, Texas Tech, Georgia, Ohio State and Florida are all still in the running. Much to change after this weekend's Red River matchup, the LSU-Florida game and Oklahoma State-Missouri.

Going over the selection rules again, I think I misread the at-large eligibility provisions last week. (This phrase escaped me: No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections). So I suppose that would allow Ohio State to get another BCS bid. Ugh.

One side note: I hereby promise to refrain from bashing Mizzou. The Tigers are pretty damn good. I reserve the right to resume knocking them if and when they begin to lose.

If they were played today:
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-LSU. Tough one to call, but I still give the Sooners an edge.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Worst of the BCS automatic bids. Hokies win.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (guess)-Alabama (guess). Yet again, Ohio State loses a BCS game.
Fiesta Bowl: Missouri (guess)-BYU (guess). Lots of points.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. Still not a chance for the Lions.