We learned that sports, like life, is unpredictable and runs its natural course no matter how you try to push it and prod it and fit it neatly into a box. Thus was the case in college football this weekend -- a weekend when many games defied all forecasts.
Who could have predicted that Missouri and Oklahoma State, two of the game's most prolific offenses, would become locked in a defensive struggle? Who would have thought the Tiger's first-team offense, which did not have a three-and-out all season and had put up 52 the week before at Nebraska, would turn into a pumpkin? (Missouri ended up scoring fewer points against Okie State than Houston and Texas A&M did.)
Who could have foreseen Penn State's 48-7 thumping at Wisconsin or Florida's 51-21 dismantling of defending national champion LSU? Who would have believed that Texas, which had yet to establish a consistent rushing attack all season, would run roughshod over Oklahoma's vaunted defense?
As much as we'd all like to think we know the secrets to sports, politics, finances or life, the truth is there's no substitute for real life, which to paraphrase columnist Thomas L. Friedman, "always bats last and always bats a thousand."
We should have given this weekend a theme: Weeding Out the Pretenders Weekend. These games in October and November separate the wheat from the chaff. We're starting to see which teams belong where.
The Wheat:
Texas. All of that game experience is starting to pay off for QB Colt McCoy, who served as a steady hand for the Longhorns in a game that was buffeted by roller-coaster-like momentum swings.
Penn State. What an impressive team. After last week's 20-6 sleepwalk against Purdue, I was ready to write them off. But on Saturday, the Nittany Lions pummeled Wisconsin in Madison. It takes talent and desire to do that.
Oklahoma State. The Cowboys won this weekend's most improbable game. They accomplished the impossible mission: Shutting down Missouri's juggernaut of an offense. And they did it on the road, too. That feat alone is enough to sell me.
Florida. I would argue there's no team that's faster than the Gators, including USC. I still believe LSU has a solid defense. But you can't tackle what you can't catch.
Notre Dame. Yes, they lost to North Carolina. But QB Jimmy Clausen, just a sophomore, continues to grow on me. His poise and accuracy under pressure is remarkable. Sure, Notre Dame will struggle at times the rest of this season. But, as commentator Bob Griese put it on Saturday, the taste of last season's 3-9 debacle is long gone.
The Chaff:
Oklahoma. What happened when the Sooners ran up against adversity for the first time this season? They crumpled. This team is so used to first-half blowouts that it did not know how to react to a pressurized fourth-quarter battle. The talent is there, but the emotional leadership is lacking.
Missouri. It finally happened. Missouri's offense let the team down. That's a scary thought given that the offense is what makes the Tigers an elite team. Without the O, Mizzou is little more than a pretender.
Texas Tech. It is only a matter of time before the Red Raiders, presently ranked No. 7, start to lose games. Both the offense and defense struggled at home against a mediocre Nebraska team. With the Big 12's heavyweights looming on Tech's schedule, the team's days in the Top Ten are numbered.
Crystal Ball report card:
The Crystal Ball had arguably its worst week ever: Wrong on Oklahoma, wrong on Vanderbilt, wrong on Kentucky and dead wrong on Missouri. The Ball also predicted two other games correctly, but incorrectly described how those contests would unfold. Wins by Florida and Penn State were absolute blowouts, not hard-fought close calls. Still, a few predictions actually came to fruition: The Ball foresaw victories by North Carolina, Kansas and USC to a tee. The Ball also had a good feeling about Toledo upsetting Michigan, but the prediction ended up on the cutting room floor.
Overrated: Texas Tech, Brigham Young
Underrated: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Boise State
Fine Nine: Texas, Penn State, USC, Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Missouri
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