Scoping out the BCS

It's the last week before we get to see what the computers think about this clustermess that is the Top 25. But here's how things stand...

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 17 twice, plus No. 18)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 19 twice, plus No. 20)
Big 10 -- Penn State (No. 3 in all)
Big 12 -- Texas (No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 4, 5 and 6)
SEC -- Alabama (No. 2 in all)

A comment, then the discussion. I think I'm goofing by using the top-ranked team from each conference, not the standings leader. But I'm going to keep the list the way it is -- just two conference leaders fall into this category -- Big East (Pittsburgh) and Pac 10 (Cal). And I simply can't justify naming Cal as the top team in the Pac 10. (Though Pitt I can agree with.)

Big changes after Weeding Out Weekend. LSU out. Oklahoma out. South Florida still slowly slipping -- and we could end up with an unranked Big East champion.

Texas and Alabama would now meet in an if-it-were-today BCS championship.

Non-majors: The Mountain West's BYU (No. 8 twice, plus No. 9) continues to break the Top 12, taking another automatic bid. They close out the season against Utah (No. 13 and No. 14 twice), which makes that a huge game. Boise State (WAC) is still potentially in the running, with two No. 15 and a No. 16 ranking.

Oklahoma and LSU are potential automatic qualifiers, if either ends up ranked No. 3 or 4. I'll be easy on the Sooners (No. 4 twice, plus No. 6) this week and give them No. 4 and an automatic berth.

So there are two at-large bids left. The contenders: Florida, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Ohio State, Missouri, LSU.

By my count, we'd see Florida and (ugh) Ohio State in BCS bowls. (None of the Big 12 teams would be eligible if Oklahoma gets an automatic bid.)

If they were played today:
(Automatic placements are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Texas-Alabama. Horns figure out a way.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Still a battle of the worst of the BCS automatic bids. Hokies win.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (guess)-Florida (guess). Yet again, Ohio State loses a BCS game.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (guess)-BYU (guess). Sooners will have to watch out for another non-major surprise.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. I'm going to flip-flop and say Penn State pulls one out.