Thursday, October 30, 2008

The Crystal Ball...

The Crystal Ball has had a rough go of it as of late. Chalk it up to too many espressos at the dairy bar. Good games abound this week, including yet another blockbuster involving the Texas Longhorns. Let's get to it:

West Virginia at Connecticut. The Huskies will be motivated as they are probably thinking about last year (QB Pat White and the rest of the Mountaineers embarrassed UConn in Morgantown 66-21). But the Mountaineers are prone to turnovers and Connecticut is good at creating them. UConn will hang tough and have some success with RB Donald Brown, a future NFLer. But if the Mountaineers can keep turnovers to a minimum, West Virginia will win on the shoulders of its talented spread offense.

Tulsa at Arkansas. Here's a chance for the Golden Hurricane to showcase its prolific offense against an SEC team. Arkansas will have the home crowd on their side and keep things close for a while, but Tulsa is too talented offensively and has too much to prove to lose. Tulsa wins.

Pittsburgh at Notre Dame. Pitt hopes to pick up the pieces from a bad loss to Rutgers, while the Irish are playing confident football. If Rutgers QB Mike Teel can throw for six scores against Pitt's defense, Irish QB Jimmy Clausen can, too. I foresee a Notre Dame win, with Irish coach Charlie Weis utilizing playaction frequently -- a strategy used by Rutgers to great effect.

Florida State at Georgia Tech. At last, Tech coach Paul Johnson's triple option offense faces off against a speedy elite defense in Florida State's. I think both offenses will struggle. But Florida State's will be able move the ball at key moments, while Tech won't. Tech will hang tough at home, but the Seminoles will pull out the victory. (Of course, if the 'Noles turn the ball over frequently, something that's not out of the question, then all bets are off.)

Iowa at Illinois. The Illini are the Big Ten's version of Jekyll and Hyde. One week, they look like BCS material. The next, they are conference doormat material. This game could go either way. But since the Hawkeyes are playing well right now and Illinois isn't, I think Iowa has the advantage. Hawkeyes win a close one.

Nebraska at Oklahoma. On paper, this one looks like a complete blowout, and it may well be. But my Spidey sense tells me that Nebraska will be fired up for this rivalry game and play perhaps their best game of the season. Remember, the Huskers came within a nail's length of upsetting Texas Tech in Lubbock earlier this season when no one gave them a chance. Oklahoma is too talented to be denied, but the Huskers will make a game of it.

Oregon at California. Here's a solid Pac-10 matchup that most of America won't see. Oregon played well last week against Arizona State, but the Golden Bears are tough to beat at home. If Cal QB Nate Longshore can avoid tossing any interceptions, I see the Bears coming out with a hard-fought win.

Big Game:

Florida vs Georgia (in Jacksonville). Last year, this game launched the 2008 Heisman campaign of Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno and set the Bulldogs upon the trajectory to greatness. That game, a Bulldog victory, featured a memorable unsportsmanlike conduct penalty when the entire Georgia team ran out onto the field following a score. Both teams remain in the national championship hunt and have lots to prove, but you can bet Florida still keeps memories of last year's celebration. Gator QB Tim Tebow was hurt last year. He isn't now. I like Georgia's offense to keep things close, but a fired-up Tebow and a slightly better Florida D will prove the difference. Gators win.

Biggest Game:

Texas at Texas Tech. Texas continues its remarkable run of titanic Big 12 showdowns. They face arguably their toughest test Saturday: Playing on the road against a talented and highly-motivated Red Raiders squad.

Tech made a believer out of me last week when they put up 63 points against Kansas and shut down the Jayhawks' very good QB Todd Reesing. On the other side, we all know what Texas can do. And they are certainly battle tested, having beaten a murderer's row of Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks.

Like many showdowns, this game will come down to defense: Who can shut down who when it matters most? That question is particularly relevant to Tech, which for years has been unable to match good offense with good D. My Spidey sense tells me both defenses will step up to create a lower-scoring game than anyone expects. Tech's defense has looked solid as of late, while Texas has shown success in containing spread offenses. Tech will have some luck throwing to WR Michael Crabtree. But in the end, this game will come down to Texas QB Colt McCoy making plays with both his arm and his legs. Texas wins a competitive game.

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