A storm for the NHC "B Teamers"

Non Football Thought:

A quick thanks to the National Hurricane Center for keeping us informed on Extratropical Cyclone Laura, which, at this point, is in danger of affecting no one but Arctic whales migrating in open water.

The Agony Meter...

Time for another edition of the Agony Meter, an exercise in measuring the ups and downs of our alma maters...

Plenty o' agony to go around: Southern Methodist
A bad start against Tulane leads to another tough loss for the Mustangs. At 1-4 overall and 0-2 in conference, SMU finds itself in the C-USA basement. Still, QB Bo Levi Mitchell showed promise and the defense played well in the second half. It's clear this team is improving, albeit slowly and agonizingly.

A little bit o' agony: Arizona State
A bye week had the Sun Devils licking its wounds following back-to-back losses to UNLV and Georgia. Moreover, Georgia's big loss to Alabama further diminishes ASU's own loss to the Bulldogs. Still, the Sun Devils remain unbeaten in conference. And with USC now looking vulnerable, maybe there's yet hope for a Rose Bowl birth.

A dash o' agony: Boston College
The Eagles crushed cupcake Rhode Island 42-0. But it wasn't pretty. B.C. racked up a Navy-like 27, count 'em 27 (!), passing yards. Starting QB Chris Crane completed one pass in four attempts. This is the alma mater of Matt Ryan and Doug Flutie for offenses-sake. Shutout win, yes. But an offensive performance like this just ain't gonna cut it against the Virginia Techs and Florida States of the world.

Non Football Quick Hits:

The financial crisis finally forces Ted Kim to sell his Google stock. And he's lucky he did, too. Selling price: $406. Price just a few hours later: $320. (Yikes!)

I'm officially in love with Diet Coke Plus, a zero-calorie blend of soda and minerals. I must drink about six a day.

Backyard lawn transformation is complete: From weeds to Augusta National. If the Red Sox ever need somewhere to play...

New favorite Starbucks drink: Soy Banana Chocolate Vivanno with a shot. Check one out. It only costs, like, $14.

Guess who is now quietly leading his fantasy football league ninja style? Yeah, that's right.

As an aside...

Just some programming notes:

On the tube is going all CSI and, starting next week, will have its own spinoff! We'll do a Tuesday edition, looking at the midweek games, plus the "What's not on (yet) that should be." Then, on Fridays, I'll post the Saturday lineup. Should streamline posts a bit, and it'll get you ready for the weekend just as the weekend's ready to begin.

A new weekly feature, Memo from a fan, will be on Thursdays starting this week.

On the tube: Early Week 6 edition

For some reason, there's a Tuesday night game this week -- with NFL Sunday and MNF tonight, no rest for the football fan in all of us. This week, I'll note not just the games I'm drooling over but also the ones that are taking on ever more importance.

Warmup of the week: I'm not going to predict an upset, but South Florida and West Virginia will be the teams to watch in the Big East. So, given the chance, I'll have them on. This week? Pitt visits the Sunshine State (6:30 p.m. Thursday, ESPN). Also Thursday, see if Oregon State can pull off a second upset in a row at Utah (8 p.m., Versus). To be honest, the rest of the mid-week games look pretty bad -- Florida Atlantic-Middle Tennessee (7 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN2), LaTech-Boise State (7 p.m. Wednesday, ESPN) and Cincinnati-Marshall (7 p.m. Friday, ESPN).

An ACC morning: Tough choice for that cup-o-joe game, but to see how the ACC fares against itself, tune in. Boston College visits NC State (11 a.m., ESPN Gameplan) to see who gets left at the bottom of the ACC Atlantic; Duke visits Georgia Tech (11 a.m., ESPNU) to see if they can outplay the triple option threat and keep pace with Virginia Tech. Put these into the "games that have significance" file.

I'm such a liar: So a couple weeks ago, I told you that I had written the Fighting Irish off and would never ask anybody to tune in to them again. Well, after seeing them dump on Purdue last weekend, I'm actually intrigued by the Stanford-Notre Dame game (1:30 p.m., NBC). One thing I really can't stand about watching these games -- besides the low production value that NBC brings -- is how homerish the broadcast team is.

Another one could bite the dust: Last week was a bad one for ranked teams, and if there's one game on Saturday that could become a major upset, I'd put my money on Texas at Colorado (6 p.m., FSN). You just never know what the Buffs are going to be able to pull off at home.

The rest:
Iowa-Michigan State (11 a.m., ESPN2): Still waiting for that Spartan Sputter.
Penn State-Purdue (11 a.m., ESPN): Can the Boilermakers ruin a perfect season?
Oklahoma-Baylor (11:30 a.m., FSN): Only because there's that chance. Razor thin, but, yes, I'm saying there's a chance.
Arizona State-Cal (2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Gameplan): Doubt it'll be on in Texas, but just an FYI, Jake.
Florida State-Miami (2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2/ESPN Gameplan): A team from my least favorite football state will absolutely lose.
Kentucky-Alabama (2:30 p.m., CBS): Two undefeated SEC teams, only one of which has faced SEC opponents. Kentucky goes down big time, despite having allowed just 22 points all season.
Illinois-Michigan (2:30 p.m., ESPN2/ABC): Was last week a fluke, or has Rich Rod figured things out?
Ohio State-Wisconsin (7 p.m., ABC/ESPN Gameplan): A one-loss Big 10 team will knock the other out of conference title contention.
Oregon-USC (7 p.m., ABC/ESPN Gameplan): Ducks are overmatched, but so were the Beavers.
Missouri-Nebraska (8 p.m., ESPN): This one just reeks of a potential upset.

What's not on (yet) that should be:
A tossup here, and it all depends on how you like your teams to match up. There's awful Army at mediocre Tulane (2 p.m.), inconsistent South Carolina at Gator-killing Ole Miss (1 p.m.) and dreadful Texas A&M at an under-the-radar Oklahoma State (6 p.m.). Out of this set, I see a big win for Tulane, a typical low-scoring defensive battle with the SEC game and a bunch of sad, sad Aggies once the Cowboys get done with them.

Scoping out the BCS

We still have a few weeks before the first BCS rankings come out (Oct. 19 is the first day), but let's take an initial look. Using the USA Today, AP and Harris Interactive polls, here's what we've got.

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 20, 22, 24)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 10 twice, plus No. 12)
Big 10 -- Penn State (No. 6 in all)
Big 12 -- Oklahoma (No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 9 in all)
SEC -- Alabama (No. 2 twice, plus No. 3)

So Oklahoma and Alabama would be in the BCS Championship. Which means the big conferences have these entries: Virginia Tech, South Florida, Penn State, Oklahoma, USC and Alabama, plus Missouri (replaces Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl) and LSU (replaces Alabama in the Sugar Bowl).

Other automatic qualifiers start to use the less-known rules. BYU becomes automatic (Mountain West champion, in the Top 12 at No. 7/8/9). Boise State (No. 17 and No. 18 twice) would be on the line as the WAC leader -- if it can break the Top 16 and Virginia Tech remains ranked lower. But no more than one non-major schools can get an automatic berth.

So now we've got nine automatic. And Texas battles it out with Texas Tech, Georgia, Ohio State and Florida for the remaining at-large berth.

If they were played today (brain dead version):
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guesses are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-Alabama. Pretty good game, but a little too much crimson.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-Boise State (guess). Broncos beat Hokies.
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (guess)-LSU (guess). Missouri overmatched against essentially a home team.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (guess)-South Florida (guess). Texas destroys a weak Big East champ.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. USC once again thumps the Big 10.

This all changes, of course, as conference play begins and Missou starts losing, Oklahoma and Texas duke it out, Alabama and LSU each lose a game and BYU tries to hang on. And there's no telling what the computers will come up with.

If they were played today (UPDATED/CORRECTED version):
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guesses are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-Alabama. Pretty good game, but a little too much crimson.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Tough to call, but I'd say the Hokies man up and take it.
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (guess)-LSU (guess). Missouri overmatched against essentially a home team.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (guess)-BYU (guess). Lots of offense.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. USC once again thumps the Big 10.

Pigskin Potpourri, Week 5

Note the change for this column's name. Thanks to an unseemly barrage of early-season Pac-10 ineptitude, I have made the executive decision to broaden my focus to the Big 12. Hey, I have a degree from a Big 12 school, too. And I think my second alma mater has a shot to make some BCS noise now that Colt McCoy (above) is morphing into Vince Young 2.0.

Don't worry, I'm still your man for Pac-10 analysis. But it was a snoozer of a week on the left coast after Oregon State wrecked the USC juggernaut once again in Corvallis on Thursday. UCLA got humbled again, this time by Fresno State, a team populated by castaway in-state recruits that the Bruins snubbed. The Washington schools just plain stink. If Ty Willingham makes it to the end of the season, he may beat pathetic Wazzu in the Apple Cup, but that's the only win I see on the Husky horizon this season.

At the risk of spreading The Batsell Jinx -- which last week predicted a USC/Georgia BCS title game, only to see both teams sputter this week -- I'm going to offer another bold prognostication. Now that USC is saddled with a loss, this year's Red River Shootout effectively becomes a playoff for a spot in the BCS title game. Whoever wins in Dallas has the inside track on the Big 12 South crown, and we all know that Mizzou will crumble in the Big 12 title game like Academic Hall did in 1892. So either Texas or OU is headed to Miami, where they will face the last team standing in the SEC or perhaps a rejuvenated USC.

What we learned by watching television...

...We learned many things: that no team is immune to the upset bug; that early-season rankings often skew our perception of who is good and who is just okay; and that Nick Saban sure can coach.

League play is starting in the SEC, finally giving us a chance to separate the wheat from the chaff. What to make of Florida's home loss to Ole Miss? Who could have predicted it? Ole Miss lost to Wake Forest, which on Saturday loses to Navy (and convincingly, too). And yet, here are the Rebels beating Florida in the Swamp. I think the next SEC team to be exposed as a great-but-not-elite team is LSU. They struggled at home against Mississippi State, a team which was waxed 38-7 by Georgia Tech the week before.

The Big 12 has some of the best offenses in the nation (Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, to name a few). Yet it is the defense of each that will dictate how far each team goes. As far as I can tell, Oklahoma has the best one in the conference, followed by Texas. That is why, in the end, the Crystal Ball foresees those two teams as eventually beating all the others.

Notre Dame is getting better, especially on defense. I saw it with my own eyes in high definition. If now mullet-free QB Jimmy Clausen continues to improve, I think the Irish have the chance to win eight or nine games this year.

Penn State is a very good football team. But I would not put them on the Oklahoma-USC-Alabama tier just yet. I watched the Nittany Lions' "Spread HD" offense with great interest on Saturday and I've subsequently concluded that it is the "spread" fused together with some West Coast-style short passes. Fine. The question is: Can I foresee the Penn State defense matching wits with the offense when the chips are down? I don't think so.

As for Alabama's big win against Georgia, the Crystal Ball foresaw it:

"...the Bulldog O' doesn't match up well with Alabama. Georgia's weakness is its young offensive line, while 'Bama's strength is its D. In many ways, Georgia is but a more talented version of Clemson: talent at the skill positions, but a young line. Tide Coach Nick Saban, I think, will blitz Georgia to kingdom come and have some surprises on offense. Can Georgia adjust? My sense is not in time. 'Bama pulls off the road upset."

Here is another Crystal Ball special:

"Colorado vs. Florida State (in Jacksonville). Florida State's defense is stout and will get to Colorado QB Cody Hawkins all game long. The Seminoles have had problems moving the ball, but I think they will be able to move it enough to win."

(Those and a few other predictions aside, it was generally a rough week for the Crystal Ball, especially on the ACC foretellings.)

Overrated: the Big 12 (except for Oklahoma, Texas and the Missouri offense), South Florida

Underrated: the Pac-10 and ACC, Notre Dame, Tulsa, Alabama WR Julio Jones, Ball State, Connecticut RB Donald Brown

Fine Nine: Oklahoma, USC, Alabama, Texas, Florida, LSU, Georgia, Penn State, Missouri