Scoping out the BCS

Two weeks till the first actual BCS rankings.

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 18 in all)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 19 twice, plus No. 20)
Big 10 -- Penn State (still No. 6 in all)
Big 12 -- Oklahoma (still No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 8 twice, plus No. 9)
SEC -- LSU (No. 2, 3 and 4)

As you can see, just one change with the conference leaders, LSU barely edging out Alabama. (The Tide is still ahead in the AP poll, coming in at No. 2. I give LSU the edge because they're ahead in both the USA Today and Harris polls.)

With Oklahoma and LSU in an if-it-were-today BCS championship, Mizzou and Alabama are almost certain to get in. (Weird provision here, but right now they're Nos. 3 and 4.)

Non-majors: The Mountain West's BYU continues to break the Top 12, taking another automatic bid. Boise State (WAC) is still potentially in the running, with two No. 15 and a No. 16 ranking.

Speaking of rank, you gotta love how the ACC and the Big East are stinking up the place. The Hokies and the Bulls could end up forcing this year's BCS selection team have to dig deep in the polls.

At-large: Texas, Texas Tech, Georgia, Ohio State and Florida are all still in the running. Much to change after this weekend's Red River matchup, the LSU-Florida game and Oklahoma State-Missouri.

Going over the selection rules again, I think I misread the at-large eligibility provisions last week. (This phrase escaped me: No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections). So I suppose that would allow Ohio State to get another BCS bid. Ugh.

One side note: I hereby promise to refrain from bashing Mizzou. The Tigers are pretty damn good. I reserve the right to resume knocking them if and when they begin to lose.

If they were played today:
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-LSU. Tough one to call, but I still give the Sooners an edge.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Worst of the BCS automatic bids. Hokies win.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (guess)-Alabama (guess). Yet again, Ohio State loses a BCS game.
Fiesta Bowl: Missouri (guess)-BYU (guess). Lots of points.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. Still not a chance for the Lions.

Scoping out the BCS

We still have a few weeks before the first BCS rankings come out (Oct. 19 is the first day), but let's take an initial look. Using the USA Today, AP and Harris Interactive polls, here's what we've got.

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 20, 22, 24)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 10 twice, plus No. 12)
Big 10 -- Penn State (No. 6 in all)
Big 12 -- Oklahoma (No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 9 in all)
SEC -- Alabama (No. 2 twice, plus No. 3)

So Oklahoma and Alabama would be in the BCS Championship. Which means the big conferences have these entries: Virginia Tech, South Florida, Penn State, Oklahoma, USC and Alabama, plus Missouri (replaces Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl) and LSU (replaces Alabama in the Sugar Bowl).

Other automatic qualifiers start to use the less-known rules. BYU becomes automatic (Mountain West champion, in the Top 12 at No. 7/8/9). Boise State (No. 17 and No. 18 twice) would be on the line as the WAC leader -- if it can break the Top 16 and Virginia Tech remains ranked lower. But no more than one non-major schools can get an automatic berth.

So now we've got nine automatic. And Texas battles it out with Texas Tech, Georgia, Ohio State and Florida for the remaining at-large berth.

If they were played today (brain dead version):
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guesses are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-Alabama. Pretty good game, but a little too much crimson.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-Boise State (guess). Broncos beat Hokies.
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (guess)-LSU (guess). Missouri overmatched against essentially a home team.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (guess)-South Florida (guess). Texas destroys a weak Big East champ.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. USC once again thumps the Big 10.

This all changes, of course, as conference play begins and Missou starts losing, Oklahoma and Texas duke it out, Alabama and LSU each lose a game and BYU tries to hang on. And there's no telling what the computers will come up with.

If they were played today (UPDATED/CORRECTED version):
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guesses are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-Alabama. Pretty good game, but a little too much crimson.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Tough to call, but I'd say the Hokies man up and take it.
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (guess)-LSU (guess). Missouri overmatched against essentially a home team.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (guess)-BYU (guess). Lots of offense.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. USC once again thumps the Big 10.

Rank This, Sept. 22.

New rankings are out, with little movement at the top. A few things to note.

How in the world has Clemson rebounded so quickly? A little more than three weeks since getting blown out by Alabama on national television, the Tigers are back to No. 20 in the AP poll and No. 19 in the coaches poll. I swear, somebody somewhere in some position of power must really like Clemson. Since losing to Alabama, the Tigers have beaten a very mediocre NC State team and creampuffs The Citadel and South Carolina State. Puleese. Let's put them in the Chick fil a Bowl and be done with it.

Kudos to voters for ranking Boise State, Vanderbilt and TCU --- all deserving teams. I'm not saying they're all going to stay ranked, but they deserve to be right now. I'm also glad that Auburn was not penalized too harshly for losing at home to a very tough LSU team. Auburn dropped to No. 15 from No. 10.

I'd say watch out for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 3-0 and have cultivated a potent offensive attack. What's more, with Troy and Texas A&M up next, Okie State could be 5-0 by the time they travel to Columbia for a showdown with Missouri on Oct. 11.

Connecticut is 4-0 and receiving votes in both polls. But I fear they may have won their last game for a while. Upcoming are games against Louisville, North Carolina, West Virginia and Cincinnati.

Woe be to Georgia and that gulag of a schedule. Who knows how long their No. 3 ranking will hold? Games loom against Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Florida and Auburn. Even the supposed "creampuffs" in that stretch, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia Tech, all are solid.

Rankings Review, Sept. 15 / Crystal Ball, in retrospect...

Ohio State plummets and USC consolidates first-place votes in the new polls. I'm surprised at how impressive voters thought South Florida's win over Kansas was. The Bulls are now at No. 12 (and clearly overrated). Good news? Kansas is roughly where it should be: No. 19ish.

Most overrated in the polls: Missouri at No. 6. The offense is potent, yes. But who have they played? This is a team that gave up six touchdowns to Illinois. On Saturday, Louisiana-Lafayette held Illinois to 20 points and almost pitched the upset.

Most underrated in the polls: Vanderbilt at unranked (They've only beaten three solid teams: Miami (Oh), South Carolina and Rice.)

Why are these teams getting votes? Ball State, Northwestern.

A review of how The Crystal Ball did:

The Crystal Ball has a sixth sense:

"Tulane is better than people think. They held Alabama to 20 points last week --- something the vaunted Clemson Tigers could not do. I still think East Carolina wins this game because they have the better offense, but it's a close one."

"The pro-Huskie crowd will scream its lungs out, but to no avail. Oklahoma does a woodshed job on Washington. I predict an ugly score, and even uglier sports columns calling for Ty Will's firing on Sunday."

"Fresno State has been pointing to this home game with Wisconsin for some time, but Wisconsin has heart and is well conditioned. My prediction: The game goes into the 4th quarter close. Ultimately, I think Wisconsin pulls it out because they have a slightly better offense. But I would not be surprised to see the Bulldogs snatch one here."

"Ohio State at USC...I think the Ohio State defense keeps it close early on. I also think coach Jim Tressel will have some tricks up his sleeve involving freshman sensation QB Terelle Pryor. But USC is just too talented to be stopped. The Trojans win comfortably."

The Crystal Ball was kind of right:

"Vandy jumps out early on Rice and withstands a furious late rally from the Owls, who are well conditioned and tend to play their best football in the 4th quarter."

"Texas Tech puts up a big number on SMU in Lubbock. The spread is 36.5, but given how poor SMU's defense is, I think Tech will cover."

"Missouri beats Nevada in Columbia. It's close in the first half, but Mizzou turns it on in the second half and adds a couple of TDs late to make the final score pretty for the newspapers."

The Crystal Ball was sniffing glue:

"Cal at Maryland... This one is not even close. Cal unleashes an offensive storm on the Terps and puts up a big, big number."

NFL Quick Notes: The Cleveland Browns are a mess. Unless they get it together in a hurry, I predict an ugly season this year.... I think RB LaDanian Tomlinson of San Diego is running out of gas. His body has taken such punishment over the years and it's starting to show.... Minnesota's stellar young RB Adrian Peterson is going to get hurt this year. He runs with abandon. But his greatest strength also could be his undoing.... Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind. The Green Bay QB is accurate and making all the right decisions. But will it last? .... Patriot QB Matt Cassel is no substitute for His Holiness, Tom Brady. The Pats will win some games this year because of defense and sheer will. But they are kidding themselves if they can compete with the elite with Cassel calling the signals.

So right and so wrong...

With the preseason AP poll now out as Jake had mentioned, a few thoughts come to mind:


AP voters have it right: Florida (No. 5) getting more votes than defending national champions LSU (No. 7). LSU is talented as usual, but basically has no experience outside of its head coach this year.

AP voters are mostly right: Putting Georgia at No. 1. I don't think any of us will disagree that Georgia's sickly awesome this year. But, then again, all of those expectations are a hard thing to manage. They get this high ranking, in large part, because of their decapitation of Colt Brennan slash Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl.

How impressive is that... really? (I did see the eighth-string Mr. Brennan throw some fine slant patterns in the fourth quarter of the Redskins' preseason game the other day.) We'll find out.

AP voters will be surprised: I think the success of "other votes" mainstays, Michigan State, Fresno State, Utah and Wake Forest are going to shake up the poll. (One of the keys to the success of the Utes and Wake? Experience. All of Wake's guys are red-shirted their freshman year and everyone on Utah, because of the Mormon mission thing, is, like 38.)

AP voters are mostly wrong: Penn State at No. 22. Late-period Joe Pa essentially guarantees this: 7-5, the Alamo Bowl and, apparently a ranking the following year. How Penn State continues to sneak into the preseason polls despite being the poster child of Big Ten mediocrity is baffling.

AP voters are smoking crack: Texas Tech at No. 12, Clemson at No. 9, and, of course, Missouri at No. 6. One more thing, I hate Notre Dame as much as the next guy. But for a team to land the second-best recruiting class and return its QB and many other starters this year and get only two votes in the poll is lame. I still think they are the Yankees of football, but Notre Dame is going to be much better this year. Mark my words.