BCS outlook

We're in the home stretch, with conference championships set. Some big games ahead Saturday, with plenty of upset potential. But I'm sticking with conventional wisdom and making my final predictions for bowl selection.

The biggest question for me: Will a 12-0 Boise State edge out a 10-2 Ohio State? The Buckeyes have had a history of failure in BCS bowls, but will people want to watch (or attend) a game featuring the boys of the blue turf? Or will the bowl selection committee shock us all and elevate Ball State (pretty much certain they'll destroy Buffalo in the MAC championship)?

Anyway...here are my picks.

BCS Championship: Florida-Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Texas-Utah
Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Boise State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State

BCS outlook: The skies clear

A mix of forecast and "If it were played today" below, but first the conference-by-conference look...

The ACC: Florida State and Georgia Tech are done with the conference schedule, with their in-state SEC rivalry games up this week. That still leaves tiebreaker possibilities out there for conference title game, and Boston College has a good chance to make it.

The Big East: Cincinnati broke Pittsburgh's back Saturday night and faces the Irish-beating Syracuse Orange this weekend. Only a Bearcat loss (and two wins by West Virginia) can keep them out of the BCS.

The Big 12: Possible monkey wrench for Oklahoma? The Bedlam Bowl this weekend.

Everything looks roses for Oregon State, unless they get surprised at the Civil War.

Utah pounded BYU, pretty much sealing a BCS berth.

The matchups today:
BCS Championship: Alabama-Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma-USC
Sugar Bowl: Florida-Utah
Orange Bowl: Florida State-Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Oregon State-Penn State

My actual prediction:
BCS Championship: Florida-Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Texas-USC
Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-Utah
Rose Bowl: Oregon State-Penn State

BCS outlook: Beyond a mess

There's no way to call the BCS at this point.

The ACC has some pretty tough competition, including as ESPN notes two four-way tie scenarios in the Coastal division. My guess? A Miami-Boston College championship game. Awe. Some. If it happens, I'll be cheering for Ted's Eagles.

The Big East. Talk about train wreck. The only way this conference can redeem itself is by moving aside and letting West Virginia be its champion. Cincinnati or Pitt in a BCS bowl are just too dreadful a scenario to imagine, but it very well could happen.

The Pac 10? Fascinating. USC's loss to Oregon State is beyond huge, and probably too big a stumble to overcome.

And the Big 12 has one (or two) key games left: Texas Tech at Oklahoma and, if the Sooners win, the Oklahoma at Oklahoma State rivalry game. Then, of course, Tech/Oklahoma/Texas/Oklahoma State has to beat Missouri.

Making all kinds of assumptions, I envision this scenario:
BCS Championship: Florida-Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Texas-USC
Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Utah
Orange Bowl: Miami-West Virginia...all bets are off if the Hokies don't get in. Ted and I agree that the Orange Bowl wouldn't want to swallow a Miami-Pitt/Cincy matchup.
Rose Bowl: Oregon State-Penn State

The BCS

Back to normal here, post-election week.

Top 2: Alabama, Texas Tech

Conference champs/leaders:
Big 12: [Texas Tech]
Big 10: Penn State
SEC: [Alabama]
ACC: Ummm...North Carolina?
Big East: Uhh.....Pitt?
Pac 10: USC

Non-automatic conference in Top 12: Utah

No. 3, 4: Texas, Florida

One at-large spot. Not SEC, not Big 12. Makes Boise State, Ohio State and -- get this -- Ball State eligible.

If they were played today:
(Automatic placements are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Alabama-Texas Tech. Smashmouth vs. gunslinging.
Orange Bowl: North Carolina-Pitt (guess). Not the best-executed game, but oh well.
Sugar Bowl: Florida (guess)-Ohio State (guess). Gators dominate.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (guess)-Utah (guess). Longhorns destroy the Utes.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. Really, really good game.

BCS outlook: Changing by the week

Well, we've got a month or so left. And no shortage of turmoil in the home stretch. Tech over Texas? Damn. Maryland? WTF. The Big East? Holy shamoley, what a mess.

The picks...

Top 2: Alabama, Texas Tech

Conference champs/leaders:
Big 12: [Texas Tech]
Big 10: Penn State
SEC: [Alabama]
ACC: Ummm...Georgia Tech?
Big East: West Virginia
Pac 10: USC

Non-automatic conference in Top 12: Utah

No. 3, 4: Texas

At-large is, as always, a mess. Florida, Boise State, Ohio State and TCU are in the mix for the final two spots. I give them to Florida and Ohio State -- a bowl is probably going to pick a major conference over a non-automatic one.

If they were played today:
(Automatic placements are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Alabama-Texas Tech. I trust Tech's offense over Alabama's defense.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech-West Virginia (guess). Lameness continues.
West Virginia wins.
Sugar Bowl: Florida (guess)-Ohio State (guess). Gators dominate.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (guess)-Utah (guess). Longhorns, despite disappointment over not being in the title game, crush the Utes.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. This matchup won't change, barring Oregon State or Cal taking over the Pac 10 or a Texas Tech/Alabama loss. Hand it to the Big 10 -- Paterno's kids win.

Scoping out the BCS

Very little movement at the top of the ranks, but lots of shuffling in the ACC and the Big East. Those conferences, plus Texas and Alabama, will have to answer some serious questions in November.

This is going to be a mess in the home stretch, but at least Ohio State’s hopes for another chance to lose in a big bowl are close to being dashed.

On to the picks...

Top 2: Texas, Alabama

Conference champs/leaders:
Big 12: [Texas]
Big 10: Penn State
SEC: [Alabama]
ACC: Impossible to figure out. Florida State?
Big East: Tough to say. West Virginia? But South Florida and UConn are ahead in the polls.
Pac 10: USC

Non-automatic conference in Top 12: Utah

No. 3, 4: Oklahoma

Eight automatic bids. Looking at the two at-large spots are Georgia, Florida, Boise State, Ohio State and TCU. Barring collapses of Texas and/or Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mizzou can't get in. Hand bids to Georgia and Boise State.

If they were played today:
(Automatic placements are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Texas-Alabama. Same matchup three weeks in a row, same outcome: Texas wins.
Orange Bowl: Florida State-West Virginia (guess). The murkiest of BCS bowls. Both of these teams are improving, but their BCS hopes are hanging on by a thread. Need to win out. Oh -- FSU takes this one.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (guess)-Boise State (guess). Sticking with this pick. And Georgia still wins.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (guess)-Utah (guess). Wouldn’t want a Boise-OK rematch. Here, Sooners should roll.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. These two play up and down to their competition. But JoePa gets the W.

Scoping out the BCS

We've got our first glimpse at the BCS standings. No real surprises, except maybe Kansas being unranked in the computer average.

Here are the automatic bids...

Top 2: Texas, Alabama

Conference champs/leaders:
Big 12: [Texas]
Big 10: Penn State
SEC: [Alabama]
ACC: Georgia Tech
Big East: Pittsburgh
Pac 10: USC

Non-automatic conference in Top 12: Utah

No. 3, 4: Oklahoma

So we've got eight automatic bids, leaving two at-large picks. In the running are Georgia, Ohio State, Florida, Boise State, LSU and TCU. (Pity the lesser Big 12 teams -- Oklahoma State and Texas Tech can't get in. Conferences are limited to two BCS entries.) If it were up to me, I'd give the two slots to Georgia and Boise State. But they'll probably hand the slots to Ohio State and Florida.

If they were played today:
(Automatic placements are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Texas-Alabama. Same matchup two weeks in a row. This changes after Alabama drops one to LSU, Mississippi State or Auburn.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech-Pittsburgh (guess). Yet again, predicting a battle of the worst of the BCS automatic bids. Tough game to call, but I lean Georgia Tech in this scenario.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (guess)-Boise State (guess). Georgia racks up a second consecutive win against a WAC team.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (guess)-Utah (guess). Sooners will still have to watch out for another non-major surprise.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. Penn State is crazy good, but this is the Rose Bowl. They win, but it's close.

Scoping out the BCS

It's the last week before we get to see what the computers think about this clustermess that is the Top 25. But here's how things stand...

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 17 twice, plus No. 18)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 19 twice, plus No. 20)
Big 10 -- Penn State (No. 3 in all)
Big 12 -- Texas (No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 4, 5 and 6)
SEC -- Alabama (No. 2 in all)

A comment, then the discussion. I think I'm goofing by using the top-ranked team from each conference, not the standings leader. But I'm going to keep the list the way it is -- just two conference leaders fall into this category -- Big East (Pittsburgh) and Pac 10 (Cal). And I simply can't justify naming Cal as the top team in the Pac 10. (Though Pitt I can agree with.)

Big changes after Weeding Out Weekend. LSU out. Oklahoma out. South Florida still slowly slipping -- and we could end up with an unranked Big East champion.

Texas and Alabama would now meet in an if-it-were-today BCS championship.

Non-majors: The Mountain West's BYU (No. 8 twice, plus No. 9) continues to break the Top 12, taking another automatic bid. They close out the season against Utah (No. 13 and No. 14 twice), which makes that a huge game. Boise State (WAC) is still potentially in the running, with two No. 15 and a No. 16 ranking.

Oklahoma and LSU are potential automatic qualifiers, if either ends up ranked No. 3 or 4. I'll be easy on the Sooners (No. 4 twice, plus No. 6) this week and give them No. 4 and an automatic berth.

So there are two at-large bids left. The contenders: Florida, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Ohio State, Missouri, LSU.

By my count, we'd see Florida and (ugh) Ohio State in BCS bowls. (None of the Big 12 teams would be eligible if Oklahoma gets an automatic bid.)

If they were played today:
(Automatic placements are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Texas-Alabama. Horns figure out a way.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Still a battle of the worst of the BCS automatic bids. Hokies win.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (guess)-Florida (guess). Yet again, Ohio State loses a BCS game.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (guess)-BYU (guess). Sooners will have to watch out for another non-major surprise.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. I'm going to flip-flop and say Penn State pulls one out.

Scoping out the BCS

Two weeks till the first actual BCS rankings.

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 18 in all)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 19 twice, plus No. 20)
Big 10 -- Penn State (still No. 6 in all)
Big 12 -- Oklahoma (still No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 8 twice, plus No. 9)
SEC -- LSU (No. 2, 3 and 4)

As you can see, just one change with the conference leaders, LSU barely edging out Alabama. (The Tide is still ahead in the AP poll, coming in at No. 2. I give LSU the edge because they're ahead in both the USA Today and Harris polls.)

With Oklahoma and LSU in an if-it-were-today BCS championship, Mizzou and Alabama are almost certain to get in. (Weird provision here, but right now they're Nos. 3 and 4.)

Non-majors: The Mountain West's BYU continues to break the Top 12, taking another automatic bid. Boise State (WAC) is still potentially in the running, with two No. 15 and a No. 16 ranking.

Speaking of rank, you gotta love how the ACC and the Big East are stinking up the place. The Hokies and the Bulls could end up forcing this year's BCS selection team have to dig deep in the polls.

At-large: Texas, Texas Tech, Georgia, Ohio State and Florida are all still in the running. Much to change after this weekend's Red River matchup, the LSU-Florida game and Oklahoma State-Missouri.

Going over the selection rules again, I think I misread the at-large eligibility provisions last week. (This phrase escaped me: No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections). So I suppose that would allow Ohio State to get another BCS bid. Ugh.

One side note: I hereby promise to refrain from bashing Mizzou. The Tigers are pretty damn good. I reserve the right to resume knocking them if and when they begin to lose.

If they were played today:
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guessed placements are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-LSU. Tough one to call, but I still give the Sooners an edge.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Worst of the BCS automatic bids. Hokies win.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (guess)-Alabama (guess). Yet again, Ohio State loses a BCS game.
Fiesta Bowl: Missouri (guess)-BYU (guess). Lots of points.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. Still not a chance for the Lions.

Scoping out the BCS

We still have a few weeks before the first BCS rankings come out (Oct. 19 is the first day), but let's take an initial look. Using the USA Today, AP and Harris Interactive polls, here's what we've got.

Top from each major conference:
ACC -- Virginia Tech (No. 20, 22, 24)
Big East -- South Florida (No. 10 twice, plus No. 12)
Big 10 -- Penn State (No. 6 in all)
Big 12 -- Oklahoma (No. 1 in all)
Pac 10 -- USC (No. 9 in all)
SEC -- Alabama (No. 2 twice, plus No. 3)

So Oklahoma and Alabama would be in the BCS Championship. Which means the big conferences have these entries: Virginia Tech, South Florida, Penn State, Oklahoma, USC and Alabama, plus Missouri (replaces Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl) and LSU (replaces Alabama in the Sugar Bowl).

Other automatic qualifiers start to use the less-known rules. BYU becomes automatic (Mountain West champion, in the Top 12 at No. 7/8/9). Boise State (No. 17 and No. 18 twice) would be on the line as the WAC leader -- if it can break the Top 16 and Virginia Tech remains ranked lower. But no more than one non-major schools can get an automatic berth.

So now we've got nine automatic. And Texas battles it out with Texas Tech, Georgia, Ohio State and Florida for the remaining at-large berth.

If they were played today (brain dead version):
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guesses are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-Alabama. Pretty good game, but a little too much crimson.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-Boise State (guess). Broncos beat Hokies.
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (guess)-LSU (guess). Missouri overmatched against essentially a home team.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (guess)-South Florida (guess). Texas destroys a weak Big East champ.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. USC once again thumps the Big 10.

This all changes, of course, as conference play begins and Missou starts losing, Oklahoma and Texas duke it out, Alabama and LSU each lose a game and BYU tries to hang on. And there's no telling what the computers will come up with.

If they were played today (UPDATED/CORRECTED version):
(Automatic bids are not labeled; guesses are marked as such.)
BCS Championship: Oklahoma-Alabama. Pretty good game, but a little too much crimson.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech-South Florida (guess). Tough to call, but I'd say the Hokies man up and take it.
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (guess)-LSU (guess). Missouri overmatched against essentially a home team.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (guess)-BYU (guess). Lots of offense.
Rose Bowl: USC-Penn State. USC once again thumps the Big 10.